Trump has lost a lot of independents centrist type dorks.

To a certain extent but people use the Presidential election to punish the party in power for the shitty economy. Biden is presiding over a shit economy and Trump is ironically the memory of a better day.

And abortion being illegal has pissed a lot of people off: look at all the votes since roe vs wade was overturned - democrats significantly over-performed in every single one.

Roe V Wade was overrturned pretty close to the midterms so I don't think it's going to have the same effect 2 years later. Plus, Trump could very easily say "Biden is doing nothing, look at his record, he isn't even pro-choice."

Lastly, I think some general rat-fuckery in the favor of Trump is bound to happen in some states he may have lost otherwise.