is it because of the Israel lobby, or because Israel serves some sort of strategic purpose?
Mearsheimer seems to think that it's mostly because of the lobby. I think I agree with him; I really can't think of any unique strategic purpose that Israel serves for the US. if Israel disappears tomorrow, the US still has colossal military bases in the Gulf states, it still has friendly governments in Jordan and Egypt, it occupies Syria and Iraq, it has ISIS to stage crazy terrorist attacks, etc. what exactly does Israel do that's worth all the negatives for the US?
I watched Finkelstein's recent interview on Al Jazeera and he mentioned he disagreed with Mearsheimer. just curious what everyone here thinks.
How? I know that's not what your argument hinges on, but let's get one thing out of the way: Israel has nukes and a solid second strike capability, is is the only nuclear power in the region as well, it has kept armed resistance to the occupation under ever tightening control since before an actual Zionist settler state existed on the territory, it has continuously expanded its territory and keeps doing so, it isn't going anywhere. Yes, it is also a US client state that needs Amerikan bomb shipments to continue the systematic displacement of 2 million people that is needed for their new waterfront properties, but even if the US and other Western states would cease all support tomorrow, Israel's existence in itself isn't threatened in any way. This is important to point out, given how commonly a reasoning like "you're an antisemite when you deny Israel's right to exist!" is used as a thought-terminating cliché in my country. Sorry for being contrarian here, just felt i needed to get into this before i answer you question.
Losing Israel as an ally nowadays mostly means that it is free to ally with other world powers, who would gain an additional foothold in the Levante and possible mediterranean naval bases. If, for example, Russia could further improve its historically good relations towards Israel, which would be a realistic scenario if the US would cease support, it would mean Russia has a contingency to their only meditarranean naval base in Syria. It would also make the situation in the Middle East even less predictable than it is now, Israel and Iran being allied with the same superpower would be quite the bummer for Saudi-Arabia and Turkey. So i agree that Israel does not have a unique strategic purpose, but it has some strategic purpose for US imperialism.
The Russians don't have the constant tens of billions needed to sustain Israel if the US pulls out
And Iran definitely would not remain friendly to Russia if it decides to back Israel to the hilt, which would guarantee Russia would make an enemy of every major state in the region aside from Israel
Also Russia doesn't have the capital and pull to keep Egypt under control like the US does and Egypt has always been the crucial determinant of the conflict
Basically it all boils down to the fact Russia can't control the middle east because it doesn't have the petro dollar and it never will