The big difference here is that if your competition can out-compete you using Chinese infrastructure, you will be forced into at least figuring out a way to dual-use it.
Ultimately, this is a Microsoft/Apple situation. It's just who will be Microsoft and who will be Apple. I think that, over time, most of the cutting edge tech will migrate over to Chinese tech, even if the rest of the world doesn't exactly. That said, Africa and Asia (outside of the colonial outposts) will mostly be in the Chinese tech sphere.
Yes, and that’s why the US is going to make it very difficult for them to do so.
Businesses don’t just exist in a vacuum. They have suppliers and vendors and collaborators and customers, the entire chain of which most have been locked into more or less the same ecosystem, and taking a leap of faith to completely switch over to an entirely different ecosystem alone is going to be very costly especially if the US declares very stringent rules that you have to follow.
Of course, companies can opt out of doing business with the “Western world” (and I think this kind of “regionalism” is where the world is heading towards) and stick to Asian businesses that are already under the Chinese sphere, but it’s going to make a lot of international businesses think twice, whether such changes will be worth it for their businesses (we’re talking about replacing hardware, revamping existing protocols, retraining staff etc.)
And here’s the kicker: China as long as it remains an export-led economy will need to make profit from exports to maintain their growth, and if international demand for their technology is dampened for political reasons, then it ends up hurting China’s technology sector.
The US knows this, probably their only chance at creating substantial damage to China, and will play this card as relentlessly as it can.
China’a only way out is to transition into a domestic consumption economy to shake off the US control, and that’s why the US is only sanctioning Huawei, and not other mobile phone manufacturers because they want China to keep relying on export for their plan to work. Sanctioning all the Chinese companies at the same time is only going to accelerate China’s move toward an internal circulation model, which is the US’s worse nightmare because they can no longer exert their control over China.
Meanwhile, Huawei has been forced to retreat “back” to China and has been destroying its competition at home, allowing Chinese native technology to flourish, while the competitors have retreated “out” to the overseas market to displace Huawei’s position there.
The big difference here is that if your competition can out-compete you using Chinese infrastructure, you will be forced into at least figuring out a way to dual-use it.
Ultimately, this is a Microsoft/Apple situation. It's just who will be Microsoft and who will be Apple. I think that, over time, most of the cutting edge tech will migrate over to Chinese tech, even if the rest of the world doesn't exactly. That said, Africa and Asia (outside of the colonial outposts) will mostly be in the Chinese tech sphere.
Yes, and that’s why the US is going to make it very difficult for them to do so.
Businesses don’t just exist in a vacuum. They have suppliers and vendors and collaborators and customers, the entire chain of which most have been locked into more or less the same ecosystem, and taking a leap of faith to completely switch over to an entirely different ecosystem alone is going to be very costly especially if the US declares very stringent rules that you have to follow.
Of course, companies can opt out of doing business with the “Western world” (and I think this kind of “regionalism” is where the world is heading towards) and stick to Asian businesses that are already under the Chinese sphere, but it’s going to make a lot of international businesses think twice, whether such changes will be worth it for their businesses (we’re talking about replacing hardware, revamping existing protocols, retraining staff etc.)
And here’s the kicker: China as long as it remains an export-led economy will need to make profit from exports to maintain their growth, and if international demand for their technology is dampened for political reasons, then it ends up hurting China’s technology sector.
The US knows this, probably their only chance at creating substantial damage to China, and will play this card as relentlessly as it can.
China’a only way out is to transition into a domestic consumption economy to shake off the US control, and that’s why the US is only sanctioning Huawei, and not other mobile phone manufacturers because they want China to keep relying on export for their plan to work. Sanctioning all the Chinese companies at the same time is only going to accelerate China’s move toward an internal circulation model, which is the US’s worse nightmare because they can no longer exert their control over China.
Meanwhile, Huawei has been forced to retreat “back” to China and has been destroying its competition at home, allowing Chinese native technology to flourish, while the competitors have retreated “out” to the overseas market to displace Huawei’s position there.