As Russian President Vladimir Putin makes his first visit to North Korea in more than two decades this week, his focus is widely seen to be on securing ongoing support from the hermit nation for his grinding war in Ukraine.
It looks to me (I am not a reliable source) like Russia won the war immediately. There will never be a stable, western aligned government in Ukraine again. But there will be a huge buffer zone that keeps NATO far from anything Russia considers dangerous.
Ukraine is only getting more Western aligned due to the war. I could easily see a Zelnsky dictatorship for a while. I don't think they are ever joining NATO but they have only gotten more Western aligned recently.
There will never be a stable, western-aligned government again. There's never gonna be a stable, eastern-aligned government either. The rightwing coups will never end. Ukraine is destroyed for the working class. The bourgeoisie might have one last chance to sell out and move to the US.
Dictatorships are perfectly stable. At present time the right loves Zelnsky and has no reason to coup. As long as the war continues Zelnsky is staying in power and in the pocket of the West. I agree with you on Ukraine being destroyed for the working class though.
How you propose to reverse or even avoid this? Keel up before nazis and allow for genocide in Donbas and another yeltsinisation of Russia? This time maybe terminal since west seem helbent on balkanization of Russia.
At this point, you can't. Continuing support for Ukraine is the best way to worsen the situation and continue keeping Zelnsky in power and continue the meat grinder. If the West pulls out, two things are possible. One is that Russia continues to push West and try to take Kyiv which will lead to Zelnsky staying in power for as long as the war continues and a protected urban warfare campaign through Kyiv which will take Russia an incredibly long time to win. The other possibility is that peace talks happen and Russia keeps their controlled territory and ends the war. This is the best chance of a "good" outcome but anyone who gets in power, declares martial law and tries to retake lost territory is just going to become Zelnsky 2. Either way, it's going to be a series of stable leaders (dictatorships) trying to cozy up with the West to defeat Russia. I don't think there ever was the possibility of a good outcome here.
Maybe or maybe not, if AFU really does break at some point the occupation process might not be as hard as you think, and afterwards - we also heard it about Chechenya that Russians will be drowned in blood there but nothing of sorts happened.
It looks to me (I am not a reliable source) like Russia won the war immediately. There will never be a stable, western aligned government in Ukraine again. But there will be a huge buffer zone that keeps NATO far from anything Russia considers dangerous.
Ukraine is only getting more Western aligned due to the war. I could easily see a Zelnsky dictatorship for a while. I don't think they are ever joining NATO but they have only gotten more Western aligned recently.
There will never be a stable, western-aligned government again. There's never gonna be a stable, eastern-aligned government either. The rightwing coups will never end. Ukraine is destroyed for the working class. The bourgeoisie might have one last chance to sell out and move to the US.
Dictatorships are perfectly stable. At present time the right loves Zelnsky and has no reason to coup. As long as the war continues Zelnsky is staying in power and in the pocket of the West. I agree with you on Ukraine being destroyed for the working class though.
How you propose to reverse or even avoid this? Keel up before nazis and allow for genocide in Donbas and another yeltsinisation of Russia? This time maybe terminal since west seem helbent on balkanization of Russia.
At this point, you can't. Continuing support for Ukraine is the best way to worsen the situation and continue keeping Zelnsky in power and continue the meat grinder. If the West pulls out, two things are possible. One is that Russia continues to push West and try to take Kyiv which will lead to Zelnsky staying in power for as long as the war continues and a protected urban warfare campaign through Kyiv which will take Russia an incredibly long time to win. The other possibility is that peace talks happen and Russia keeps their controlled territory and ends the war. This is the best chance of a "good" outcome but anyone who gets in power, declares martial law and tries to retake lost territory is just going to become Zelnsky 2. Either way, it's going to be a series of stable leaders (dictatorships) trying to cozy up with the West to defeat Russia. I don't think there ever was the possibility of a good outcome here.
I'm more and more convinced least bad option is to just annex everything and try Chechenya method.
The issue with annexation is it requires occupation which is going to kill a ton of people.
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Maybe or maybe not, if AFU really does break at some point the occupation process might not be as hard as you think, and afterwards - we also heard it about Chechenya that Russians will be drowned in blood there but nothing of sorts happened.