NATO losing to Russia in Ukraine, and to the Houthis in the Gulf of Aden, will send a message to a lot of neutral countries that (1) NATO can't / won't protect you anymore, and (2) you can push back against NATO and win or at least gain concessions. NATO will still be the single largest military bloc in the world, but they'll actually have to negotiate, maybe even compromise.
Yeah...only thing that makes me feel like this is still semi-hyperbolic is...didn't Afghanistan and the last quarter of a century plus already kinda show that to be the case? Ukraine itself already kinda seems like the result of that sense that the west is insurmountably powerful being squashed.
i guess ukraine, being in europe, is more like nato's backyard or home turf than afghanistan (even though ukraine is obviously those things for russia, too). iirc, ukraine was the best armed and trained military in europe outside of russia before the war. nato had been pumping it full of guns, money, and specialists since 2014 so a loss after all that, and right on their borders, will sting more than the loss in afghanistan. ukraine losing also means a win for russia, while the loss in afghanistan was really only a win for the taliban, who of course aren't really big players on the world stage
NATO losing to Russia in Ukraine, and to the Houthis in the Gulf of Aden, will send a message to a lot of neutral countries that (1) NATO can't / won't protect you anymore, and (2) you can push back against NATO and win or at least gain concessions. NATO will still be the single largest military bloc in the world, but they'll actually have to negotiate, maybe even compromise.
Yeah...only thing that makes me feel like this is still semi-hyperbolic is...didn't Afghanistan and the last quarter of a century plus already kinda show that to be the case? Ukraine itself already kinda seems like the result of that sense that the west is insurmountably powerful being squashed.
i guess ukraine, being in europe, is more like nato's backyard or home turf than afghanistan (even though ukraine is obviously those things for russia, too). iirc, ukraine was the best armed and trained military in europe outside of russia before the war. nato had been pumping it full of guns, money, and specialists since 2014 so a loss after all that, and right on their borders, will sting more than the loss in afghanistan. ukraine losing also means a win for russia, while the loss in afghanistan was really only a win for the taliban, who of course aren't really big players on the world stage
There's also not a lot of the Afghan excuses that can be used for Ukraine.