We'll see. Industrial states can turn quickly when they've got an economic incentive to do so. A big part of US O&G still hinges on uninterrupted access to the Mid Eastern oil fields, and that whole region is destabilizing rapidly.

The pricing in O&G is deeply unstable and the industry is vulnerable to sudden fluctuations (remember the -$43/bbl oil during COVID) that fuck up all the supply chains and cause huge layoffs. Renewable electricity is significantly more reliable, more regional, and increasingly profitable.

China isn't adopting Nuclear/Renewables because the CCP have hearts of gold. These are legitimately better tools for long term regional stability. Westerners will learn this lesson the hard way, but the states that learn it first and fastest are going to see the largest economic windfalls.

I don't think its a coincidence that Texas continues to trailblaze on wind and solar, despite having a political class ideologically opposed to it.