A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 52–48% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice referendum. This is Labor’s narrowest lead in Newspoll since the 2022 federal election.
The historical Newspoll results may be helpful to better contextualize the most recent results.
Being a weak government without the backbone to make meaningful changes for fear of astroturfed backlash will disenchant one side, and not being the coalition will disenchant the other side..