China would collapse in the aftermath because it can not secure a Russian border controlled by nato
I know this isn't your primary point, but this is not at stake. Barring international nuclear holocaust, China isn't really at risk.
rambling to explain where I'm coming from
Militaries have never mattered less than they do now. The United States was in Afghanistan for two decades and failed at curbing the Taliban, and the runaway costs of asymmetric warfare could not possibly compare to the ludicrous expenses of fighting anyone with even marginally greater technology.
The only mistake China could make is to charge full steam ahead in militarizing and sacrifice every material gain on the altar of maintaining parity with NATO, and that won't happen. They don't need parity, and they know that. China has around 250-350 nukes, compared to over 5,000 that the United States has, and the difference doesn't matter. They have enough. They don't try to have more, they don't overextend, they don't pick fights. They've been sitting on their thumbs for decades in regards to capturing Taiwan. Russia and the US could take some notes.
Add in complications with the West divorcing economies from China, and we're probably talking another two decades before anyone bothers to turn up heat. With the current course of development and the comparative decay of the United States, the only major fear is the desperation of a dying empire. There's not much question about who would be ahead.
I know this isn't your primary point, but this is not at stake. Barring international nuclear holocaust, China isn't really at risk.
rambling to explain where I'm coming from
Militaries have never mattered less than they do now. The United States was in Afghanistan for two decades and failed at curbing the Taliban, and the runaway costs of asymmetric warfare could not possibly compare to the ludicrous expenses of fighting anyone with even marginally greater technology.
The only mistake China could make is to charge full steam ahead in militarizing and sacrifice every material gain on the altar of maintaining parity with NATO, and that won't happen. They don't need parity, and they know that. China has around 250-350 nukes, compared to over 5,000 that the United States has, and the difference doesn't matter. They have enough. They don't try to have more, they don't overextend, they don't pick fights. They've been sitting on their thumbs for decades in regards to capturing Taiwan. Russia and the US could take some notes.
Add in complications with the West divorcing economies from China, and we're probably talking another two decades before anyone bothers to turn up heat. With the current course of development and the comparative decay of the United States, the only major fear is the desperation of a dying empire. There's not much question about who would be ahead.
A NATO-friendly Russia would be devastating for China