Yes I get theory from r/genzedong, how could you tell?

  • geikei [none/use name]
    ·
    edit-2
    3 years ago

    It's not trading with the US, every country trades with the US. Assad traded with the US when Syria handled these fields.

    Thing is US presence and basically handling(most of the time the US has a free reign and the last word regarding relevant decisions and Rojava for all their "independence" can't say no) of the Syrian oil fields in Kurdish territory has the explicit goal and directive of cutting the Syrian state off of them, taking away a big source of revenue and energy security and as a result plunging the Syrian people into more misery and the Syrian state in more instability . And it had just those results exactly. US presence and activity in Syria is the cause of 10s of millions of lives thrown in death misery and displacement and their presence, influence and control in the entire middle eastern region for 100s of millions. They are by far the greater Satan and Rojava as a project existing with US presence and influence in the region arguably does and has done more harm than good in human cost

    The US began backing the Kurds against both Assad and Islamic State, in both northeastern Syria and northern Iraq, against the wishes of their Turkish allies. The Kurds turn out to be more reliable proxies. Their initial plan is to split off northeastern Syria from the Assad government and form a Kurdish state chiefly in order to deny Assad control of oil resources in the region. This is open knowledge and admired in us strategic planning

    What happened is that later wny US plan to partition off Rojava into a Kurdish state was pretty much thrown off, but they keep the Kurds in limbo about this, deliberately telling them to stonewall negotiations from Assad, for like two years.

    Turkey, which has been heavily supporting the Sunni fundamentalist rebel groups throughout the war, intervenes directly by invading the SDF’s enclave in Afrin in early 2018. This is due to long-running concerns about the Kurdish communist-nationalist-separatists that have plagued the country for decades, and them potentially becoming emboldened and strengthened through cross-border cooperation. In 2019, the Turks invade Rojava, intending to secure a “buffer zone” all along the border where they can expel the Kurds and resettle the region with their Sunni jihadist proxies. Rojava, who again have been discouraged from negotiating with Assad by the US for years, are cut loose and thrown to the (grey) wolves. In desperation, they cut a deal with Assad where they will presumably be able to negotiate regional autonomy after the war is over. The SAA takes positions with the SDF in northeastern Syria and effectively halts the Turkish-jihadist advance. In very late 2019 the SAA begins a renewed offensive against the Idlib Pocket. They are rolling them back rapidly and it seems an end to the war is in sight. Then a (probably Russian) air strike kills like 60 Turkish special forces “advisers” near Idlib. This causes the Turks to again escalate their intervention and they inflict severe losses on the SAA, halting their advance.

    With decreased US occupation of the erea the Kurds were forced to strike ,a hopefully long lasting now, deal with the Syrian state and governent to avoid getting completely genocided by the Turks and continue with some very limited regional autonomy since the Syrian state . They neither got genocided nor assimilated Rojava since that would mean again exasterbating the situation into an utterly chaotic and violent civil war, becoming even weaker against the islamic oposition groups and destroying their country. The thing Kurds lost and would lose is a big degree of regional autonomy that in many ways never had cause they never could say no to any of the US requests and decisions about what will happen in their erea

    And on the opposite side, US presence has and had the goal of Assad being defeated by the US-led coalition which would not lead to a better outcome for the Syrian or Kurdish peoples based on the primary opposition inside syria.In this sequence of events there is effectively no scenario where the secular Syrian Government can become stable economicaly and geopoliticaly with US prolonging their occupation in the erea since its very presence and action there is for it to not happen. Prollonging the current situation of even a decreeased US presence in the erea (which can always and probably will be attempted to ramp up) means misery and suffering for millions of syrian citizens with no future where they will have a full belly and a safe ans stable life. You pretty much have three scenarios for that case :

    *Islamic foundementalists win. This probably triggers a direct and large-scale intervention by the United States, which will mean prolonged war and insurgency for decades.

    *The Assad government collapses entirely, without Islamic State as the primary beneficiary. Syria essentially turns into a Libya-style anarchy except worse, as the jihadist proxies for various actors in the region begin conducting sectarian pogroms with no resistance and fighting each other for their share of the ashes. Eventually one faction will win out and impose a Sunni fundamentalist regime that is a puppet for either Turkey, Qatar, or Saudi Arabia.

    *The same as Scenario 2 except the SDF carves out an independent Kurdish state in northeastern Syria in the process. Then

    1. Turkey invades and crushes them, then either annexes the region outright or eventually hands it off to a puppet government they help set up in Damascus.

    2. The US completes morphs that erea into a semi-vassal state under the guise of “protecting the second only democracy in the middle east” with continued pressence for influencing anything military or geopolitical in the erea strengthening their position against Iran and rival forces. The Kurds can never exist without the US and can never say no to anything the US decides to do in and from their erea since again any US pulling back would mean Turkey /and or the worse than Assad power that controls syria now invading them

    So all that considered i always had an issue with supporting them as a project existing under and only through US presence . Mostly against the mainstream in the left narrative that it HAD TO and that there WAS NO CHOICE and THAT ASSAD AND TURKS WOULD SLAUGHTER THEM OTHERWISE and so US presence is the lesser evil for them.Which like we laid out is not the case. The Americans are the greatest opressors in the erea by an insane degree, and anything else that comes close (isis) is basicaly a result of their presence and interference. People that became downtrodden by the american empire and resist against its opressive presence and occupation are both the majority comperatively to the Kurds and the group that takes precedent regarding my supporth (as long as they arent straight up islamic foundementalists) and supporting them means the complete removal of US from the region means that Rojava as a project will just lose its percieved “autonomy” and be set back massively.

    So im happy to support the form it takes without US presence even if it is less politicaly and economicaly “autonomous” ,its better for everyone in the long run