Even the catastrophic scenario means Ukraine loses lots of territory (Odessa) but is still able to stabilize the front and survive.
"rules-based world order"
Even the catastrophic scenario means Ukraine loses lots of territory (Odessa) but is still able to stabilize the front and survive.
"rules-based world order"
If they're convinced that Russia will invade again if Ukraine is not in EU/NATO, then Russia wouldnt be interested in a peace negotiation in the first place since Russian domestic support for the war is still high and the Ukrainian position is increasingly untenable even with Western support. If the Russian goal is to annex everything up to the Polish border, they wouldn't stop now when Ukraine is at its weakest.
It only kind of makes sense if you believe that Russia has lost 9 gorillion men and is about to run out of munitions (any day now, Bellingcat!). Therefore, whoever prepared this chart is fucking delusional either way you slice it.