And for a very simple reason.....he hasn't been racist and genocidal enough, Biden has, so Trump loses pure and simple
While you and me see dead children on TV, the American "middle class" see dead terrorists and soon the dems will tie inflation to Yemen and can literally construct a narrative about "bombing inflation" a consultants wet dream
When the initial shock of recent events wears off, American voters won't punish Biden, they'll reward him with the wartime boost he's been looking for since Ukraine
Trump in the meantime is still babbling about 2020 and his court dates, he needs at least five "Mexican rapist" stump speeches to reach parity with Biden
It's Joever folks, Biden secured 2024 with the blood Palestinians the same way Bush secured 2004 with the blood of Iraqi, it even has a historical symmetry that rhymes
"I'm voting Haley because she's not Trump" I have actually been wondering about this since his entire campaign is literally just "he's not Trump" what happens if someone else gets the nomination? I think it's reasonable to assume it would depress turnout from both parties unless it is due to something that can be pointed at as Democratic corruption like blocking Trump from the ballot, in which case I would guess it would only depress dem turnout.
Though I am not clear if this does anything for write-ins or not so I don't know if we would see our first actual spoiler candidate.