Only one of the two pipelines has been blown up, the other is perfectly functional right now. German government is just choosing not to use it. I do agree that Germany is in a very precarious situation right now, but it's purely for political reasons. I expect that the current government will get kicked out, and the new government will either make a deal with Russia to resume using Nord Stream or there are gonna be riots.
3 out the 4 pipelines were blown up. And you’re assuming the US won’t just bomb the last one away when needed.
The bombing itself was a warning and a threat. Germany understands this. Whoever gets into the government understands this reality.
Millions more will riot if the US stops supplying energy to Germany. We’re talking about societal collapse here. Nothing functions when you don’t have fuel and energy.
I think the bombing was a one time deal and relied on having a puppet government in power. Incidentally, this might yet come back to bite them in the ass, if a new government comes into power and declassifies the docs that the current government is keeping from the public. If Germany has a government that wants to restore relations with Russia and US bombs their infrastructure, that's not gonna turn out well.
Meanwhile, current energy supply situation is already unsustainable as it is. US is simply unable to supply sufficient LNG to Germany, and the cost of LNG is an order of magnitude higher than pipeline gas. Germany is deindustrializing as we speak, and I'd argue societal collapse is inevitable unless Germany can start getting pipeline gas from Russia again. The whole economy was predicated on having cheap pipeline gas, and it's now collapsing without it. There is nothing US can do to fix that.
I think the bombing was a one time deal and relied on having a puppet government in power.
If they didn't had approval from whoever's national waters this happened in, the US definitely couldn't have pulled it of. We tend to forget it because of how far the US has managed to project their power but the reason they managed to project their power so far is not because every other country was powerless to stop them but because almost every country that could do something to stop them not only conciously let them but actively helped them because they had their government filled with US vassals.
Germany is deindustrializing as we speak, and I’d argue societal collapse is inevitable unless Germany can start getting pipeline gas from Russia again. The whole economy was predicated on having cheap pipeline gas, and it’s now collapsing without it. There is nothing US can do to fix that.
I think we should expect a rising contradiction between the large European capitalists who have the means to relocate to the US and the Petty bourgeois who will be forced to do with whatever state the European economy is in but I'm not sure. If I'm right then we will probably see the Petty bourgeois form movements that actualy seek to cut ties with the US.
Right, and I do think that the fact that German government colluded with the US to blow up German infrastructure will eventually come out, and that will have long term repercussions in Germany. Such a revelation will make a lot of people understand that Germany isn't sovereign and that they've been vassalized by the US. It could be a catalyst for Germany to actually start becoming sovereign.
I do think we'll see a contradiction between global capital and smaller local bourgeoisie as well. I think another big factor will be the working class. As jobs move out of Germany we'll see a huge wave of unemployment and disenfranchisement. The local bourgeoisie will see this as an opportunity and will likely align with the workers against the large capitalists. They will realize that if large capitalists can be kicked out that would open up business niches that can be filled locally.
I do think we’ll see a contradiction between global capital and smaller local bourgeoisie as well. I think another big factor will be the working class. As jobs move out of Germany we’ll see a huge wave of unemployment and disenfranchisement. The local bourgeoisie will see this as an opportunity and will likely align with the workers against the large capitalists. They will realize that if large capitalists can be kicked out that would open up business niches that can be filled locally.
At that time we(communists)'ll need to be there to critically support the bourgeois class traitors. True German communist parties need to get to work right now and be ready by then.
Indeed, Germany clawing back its sovereignty from US is a prerequisite for having an independent domestic policy. Communism is simply never going to be an option while Germany is a vassal of the US.
I hope you're right about the possibility of realignment but i am more pessimistic than you are about the chance of a government coming to power that will change course. Maybe as i'm living in Germany i can't see the forest for the trees, but i can't see any path toward another government that won't behave just like this one.
Sure the SPD and Greens will lose the next elections, but who will win? Likely the CDU because they are the only alternative. They are who the pendulum swings back to as the default other choice when the SPD fucks up, and vice versa. They will then have to form another coalition government because they will not have a majority and chances are they will still pick one or more of the current government's parties, because i don't think that anyone will want to be seen entering into coalition with the AfD.
Even if the AfD won the elections they likely wouldn't be able to form a government for this same reason. They have been successfully demonized by the media so that most Germans now see them as beyond the acceptable spectrum of political positions (as they should be, as they have a very xenophobic platform and a lot of "ex-"neo-Nazis in their ranks...the problem is that the "mainstream" parties are also full of Nazi sympathizers as the Ukraine conflict has shown) so we would still get the same mainstream parties in power.
I see no mainstream political force in Germany that wants to reverse the energy break with Russia, the Left party has essentially collapsed, the AfD will likely be kept at all costs from entering government and there is even talk of a ban on the entire party (too late if you ask me), and Sahra Wagenknecht's new party is just getting started and we have no idea whether they will actually be able to get any significant amount of votes, and even if they do, it won't be a majority so then they are in the same position as the AfD of needing coalition partners but being essentially shunned by the rest as they will be painted as "Putin puppets".
And i hope that Wagenknecht will not consider joining forces with the AfD because that is just a very terrible and disgusting thought, and i don't trust the AfD to not go the Meloni route anyway. So overall i don't see the mainstream parties, CDU, SPD, Greens and FDP, losing their stranglehold on German politics and government.
I generally agree with your assessment in the near term. However, the establishment has no solutions to the problems they created, and that means that material conditions will continue to decline. That will be the main radicalizing force in my opinion. When push comes to shove people will care about being able to pay their bills and put food on the table more than any ideology. From what I've read, it seems that Germany doesn't really have an alternative to Russian energy because LNG is far more expensive, and it simply can't be delivered in the same volume as pipeline gas. So, the only way to stop the collapse of the economy will be to start normalizing relations with Russia. The alternative is going to be mass unemployment, and mass radicalization.
Unfortunately, I do expect that things will get worse before they get better. It's going to take a critical mass of disenfranchised people to break away from the current political mainstream ans start charting a new course.
Only one of the two pipelines has been blown up, the other is perfectly functional right now. German government is just choosing not to use it. I do agree that Germany is in a very precarious situation right now, but it's purely for political reasons. I expect that the current government will get kicked out, and the new government will either make a deal with Russia to resume using Nord Stream or there are gonna be riots.
3 out the 4 pipelines were blown up. And you’re assuming the US won’t just bomb the last one away when needed.
The bombing itself was a warning and a threat. Germany understands this. Whoever gets into the government understands this reality.
Millions more will riot if the US stops supplying energy to Germany. We’re talking about societal collapse here. Nothing functions when you don’t have fuel and energy.
I think the bombing was a one time deal and relied on having a puppet government in power. Incidentally, this might yet come back to bite them in the ass, if a new government comes into power and declassifies the docs that the current government is keeping from the public. If Germany has a government that wants to restore relations with Russia and US bombs their infrastructure, that's not gonna turn out well.
Meanwhile, current energy supply situation is already unsustainable as it is. US is simply unable to supply sufficient LNG to Germany, and the cost of LNG is an order of magnitude higher than pipeline gas. Germany is deindustrializing as we speak, and I'd argue societal collapse is inevitable unless Germany can start getting pipeline gas from Russia again. The whole economy was predicated on having cheap pipeline gas, and it's now collapsing without it. There is nothing US can do to fix that.
If they didn't had approval from whoever's national waters this happened in, the US definitely couldn't have pulled it of. We tend to forget it because of how far the US has managed to project their power but the reason they managed to project their power so far is not because every other country was powerless to stop them but because almost every country that could do something to stop them not only conciously let them but actively helped them because they had their government filled with US vassals.
I think we should expect a rising contradiction between the large European capitalists who have the means to relocate to the US and the Petty bourgeois who will be forced to do with whatever state the European economy is in but I'm not sure. If I'm right then we will probably see the Petty bourgeois form movements that actualy seek to cut ties with the US.
Right, and I do think that the fact that German government colluded with the US to blow up German infrastructure will eventually come out, and that will have long term repercussions in Germany. Such a revelation will make a lot of people understand that Germany isn't sovereign and that they've been vassalized by the US. It could be a catalyst for Germany to actually start becoming sovereign.
I do think we'll see a contradiction between global capital and smaller local bourgeoisie as well. I think another big factor will be the working class. As jobs move out of Germany we'll see a huge wave of unemployment and disenfranchisement. The local bourgeoisie will see this as an opportunity and will likely align with the workers against the large capitalists. They will realize that if large capitalists can be kicked out that would open up business niches that can be filled locally.
I can totally see Germans going to gastarbeit to Poland and schadenfreude flooding everything here.
lol
At that time we(communists)'ll need to be there to critically support the bourgeois class traitors. True German communist parties need to get to work right now and be ready by then.
Indeed, Germany clawing back its sovereignty from US is a prerequisite for having an independent domestic policy. Communism is simply never going to be an option while Germany is a vassal of the US.
I hope you're right about the possibility of realignment but i am more pessimistic than you are about the chance of a government coming to power that will change course. Maybe as i'm living in Germany i can't see the forest for the trees, but i can't see any path toward another government that won't behave just like this one.
Sure the SPD and Greens will lose the next elections, but who will win? Likely the CDU because they are the only alternative. They are who the pendulum swings back to as the default other choice when the SPD fucks up, and vice versa. They will then have to form another coalition government because they will not have a majority and chances are they will still pick one or more of the current government's parties, because i don't think that anyone will want to be seen entering into coalition with the AfD.
Even if the AfD won the elections they likely wouldn't be able to form a government for this same reason. They have been successfully demonized by the media so that most Germans now see them as beyond the acceptable spectrum of political positions (as they should be, as they have a very xenophobic platform and a lot of "ex-"neo-Nazis in their ranks...the problem is that the "mainstream" parties are also full of Nazi sympathizers as the Ukraine conflict has shown) so we would still get the same mainstream parties in power.
I see no mainstream political force in Germany that wants to reverse the energy break with Russia, the Left party has essentially collapsed, the AfD will likely be kept at all costs from entering government and there is even talk of a ban on the entire party (too late if you ask me), and Sahra Wagenknecht's new party is just getting started and we have no idea whether they will actually be able to get any significant amount of votes, and even if they do, it won't be a majority so then they are in the same position as the AfD of needing coalition partners but being essentially shunned by the rest as they will be painted as "Putin puppets".
And i hope that Wagenknecht will not consider joining forces with the AfD because that is just a very terrible and disgusting thought, and i don't trust the AfD to not go the Meloni route anyway. So overall i don't see the mainstream parties, CDU, SPD, Greens and FDP, losing their stranglehold on German politics and government.
I generally agree with your assessment in the near term. However, the establishment has no solutions to the problems they created, and that means that material conditions will continue to decline. That will be the main radicalizing force in my opinion. When push comes to shove people will care about being able to pay their bills and put food on the table more than any ideology. From what I've read, it seems that Germany doesn't really have an alternative to Russian energy because LNG is far more expensive, and it simply can't be delivered in the same volume as pipeline gas. So, the only way to stop the collapse of the economy will be to start normalizing relations with Russia. The alternative is going to be mass unemployment, and mass radicalization.
Unfortunately, I do expect that things will get worse before they get better. It's going to take a critical mass of disenfranchised people to break away from the current political mainstream ans start charting a new course.
deleted by creator
deleted by creator