I sincerely think we're seeing the collapse of the US empire and reigniting of inter-nation conflict as the role of global hegemon goes back up for grabs. The US military getting its ass handed to it by non-traditional, insurgent forces doesn't mean anything because those forces cannot by definition pose a threat of real geopolitical competition and the point of the US fighting them anyway was to justify military spending, not to actually 'win' any war or anything. Russia has a real potential to dictate terms on a victory unlike ISIS. Either way, if the US loses or just decides to back down it signals to other nations that the US is no longer the adult in the room with the finger on the button and opens up the possibility of open conflict between the larger powers, something we haven't really seen since WWII (the last time there was a geopolitical power void as the British fell and the Americans rose). My prediction is still that the US decides to do nothing and just goes home at the end of the day (either due to lack of enthusiasm or just because we're so in decline we don't actually have the ability to do anything about it) and that causes a split in the NATO powers where individual nations realize they need to act independently without the US leading the way (a process already underway and started by the Trump admin). Calling my shot that Russia invading Ukraine will the US's suez canal crisis where it's put on display for the globe that the US just doesn't have it anymore and then other nations realize it's their shot to take the throne. We won't know until after the fact though, that's the bitch of history