really the only shot at it happening is an "october surprise" that involves biden/trump becoming very publicly incapacitated. like, fall down some steps and clonk the coconut on the concrete... never to be seen in public again. or insane ear bleed during a speech. not only that, but the institutional reaction to it would have to be a complete dogfuck. like neither side wants to admit their guy is a turnip hooked up to a bellows, but everybody knows it and their official/unofficial seconds go off script and shit the bed at seizing the moment such that there is no underlying sense of legitimacy to either party since the turnips are still at the top of the ballot, and their unlikable seconds are undermining their own tickets.

in this kind of context, with some imperial crisis looming and driving up gas prices, i could imagine a third party with a simple message and a known quantity for a face doing something.