(Note: I haven't listened to this yet personally)
Included a map of hypothetical Russian operational plans drawn up on the eve of it starting by this guy who correctly called the leadup to war months in advance. The Crimea axis of advance in particular right now looks particularly accurate.
I feel you on the self crit, because I had the same mistaken belief about this that I did about the US invading Iraq: that it was too stupid and self-defeating to actually happen, and therefore there was just sabre rattling to force concessions.
I really need to work on that - feels like I'm big braining myself into homo internationalus theory (as opposed to homo economicus).