All up not the worst outcome.

Best outcome would have been that it was already spreading globally (as suggested by wastewater analysis) and China just detected it first.

Next best would be that it was brought into the wet market, but by a person.

Slightly worse is if it jumped from animals at the market, as that vindicates the racists. <— we are here

Worse than that is accidental lab leak of natural virus.

Worse still is accidental lab leak of manufactured virus.

Worst of all is intentional release of manufactured virus.

  • Sincerity [comrade/them]
    ·
    2 years ago

    This is why we have epidemiologists; we look for reasons for these things all the time.

    If you want a good recent example - the clusters of hepatitis in children, some of whom required liver transplants. Multiple extremely experienced public health agencies and academic colleagues looking at sequencing data, PCR data, biopsies, good biological tissue samples. And it's still not fully clear exactly what caused them; after months of hard scrutiny. There was a paper this week which has posited that the commonality between them all was a rare adeno-associated virus. But we're still not entirely sure on the mechanisms at play.

    Sometimes clusters happen, and they're not always easily explicable. However - it's certain that the most parsimonious explanation for those incidents you listed above is not that all the genomic and phylogenetic information we have amassed on COVID is incorrect and there is some kind of mass cover up by international evolutionary virologists.