Trends That Define Neomedievalism

RAND's report is not the first to describe the modern world as neomedieval. Its contribution is in assessing how neomedieval conditions will shape the rivalry between China and the United States.

Its authors identify five trends that will define the era:

Weakening states: Governments will struggle to maintain legitimacy; ensure domestic security; and provide levels of goods, services, and opportunities their people expect.

Fragmenting societies: National spirit will erode as competing group identities, such as sub- and transnational communities, gain traction.

Imbalanced economies: Growth will be concentrated in a few sectors. Problems of entrenched inequality, stagnant social mobility, and illicit economies will worsen.

Pervasive threats: The proliferation of dangers, such as natural disasters, infectious disease, and violent nonstate actors, will create a sense of permeating risk, even as the possibility of conflict with rival states persists.

Informalization of warfare: Military forces will increasingly consist of professional troops augmented by contractors, mercenaries, and sympathetic armed groups such as militias. Older methods of fighting, such as intrastate conflicts, sieges, and irregular conflict, will be revived.