Gates directed this year’s letter toward high school students, complete with personal details including his early affinity for Superman comic books, his bad grades in middle school and his love of Cocoa Puffs cereal. (Melinda Gates, who focused the second half of the letter on gender equality, prefers Wheat Chex). He punctuates his letter with a simple mathematical equation he concocted that underscores the need for what he calls an “energy miracle”.

P x S x E x C = CO2 (carbon dioxide output).

It’s a neat little formula because it drives home the point: that for all the Paris climate talks and more affordable Teslas, environmental incrementalism is somewhat pointless. In the equation, P = population; S = services used by people; E= the energy needed to power those services; and C equals the carbon dioxide created by that energy. Population is of course trending ever-higher, as are the services people demand, especially in the developing world which has barely scratched the surface in terms of cars and air conditioning and other modern basics. Those two factors swamp progress in energy efficiency. Gates points out that scientists are calling for an 80 percent drop in carbon emissions by 2050 (and a total end by 2100) to stave off the most dramatic effects of climate change, yet even with more efficiency, the growth in population and services means that emissions will instead jump by 50%.

Math 101: the only way to get to zero carbon dioxide output is to drop one of those inputs to zero. Since eliminating any carbon byproduct of energy is preferable to a complete human die-off or a stone age suite of services, that’s the only path. Shaving at the margins simply won’t get the job done; only a moonshot solution that provides unlimited clean energy will stave off environmental (and thus, economic) catastrophe.

https://archive.md/yI8Zu

  • Dirt_Owl [comrade/them, they/them]
    ·
    edit-2
    2 years ago

    Bill Gates

    Why are you asking a businessman to solve a problem well outside his field and not, say, ecologists, anthropologists, biochemists, and environmental scientists? You know, people that study this shit for a living? That's like asking your dentist for plumbing advice. Maybe it's because you don't like the solution given by people in the relevant fields.

    He punctuates his letter with a simple mathematical equation he concocted that underscores the need for what he calls an “energy miracle”.

    Just say you have no idea if you're going to suggest magical cures.

    Gates points out that scientists are calling for an 80 percent drop in carbon emissions by 2050 (and a total end by 2100) to stave off the most dramatic effects of climate change.

    Actually, we need to start pulling carbon out of the air ASAP. We need to fully reverse it if we want to not cause a domino effect and kill ourselves and 90% of life with us.

    the only way to get to zero carbon dioxide output is to drop one of those inputs to zero.

    You have yet to demonstrate that this equation can accurately predict anything. Nor do we need it, because the prediction models environmental scientists already use have proven to already be pretty damn accurate at predicting things.

    Since eliminating any carbon byproduct of energy is preferable to a complete human die-off or a stone age suite of services, that’s the only path.

    Please elaborate on how you concluded that those are the only paths. Or how we can take a path that isn't currently available to us (a magic non-polluting energy source that allows you to continue expanding energy consumption)?

    This also assumes that any reduction in energy consumption would send us back to the stone age. Explain this reasoning. Show your work. Citations needed. You also fail to acknowledge other factors of anthropogenic ecological collapse outside of carbon, such as rapid expansion, real estate development, land clearing, farming, pollution, and pesticides.

    The solution to climate change has been made loud and clear, by those who study it, for decades; A society where the economy and production are carefully planned and kept in balance with our environment. In other words, we need to transition away from a capitalist system to a socialist system of government. This is probably why someone that lives in obscene luxury because of the said capitalist system, such as yourself, can't provide a real solution.

    The solution needs to happen on multiple fronts; reduce energy consumption to what is necessary for a safe and happy life. No more overproducing just so the super-rich can live cartoonishly lavish lives. If we restrict production to only what we need to live comfortable lives (no, we don't even have to go stone age), then we reduce carbon considerably. As the repair of the ozone after the banning of CFCs has shown us, restrictions and regulations work. Instead of wasting money and effort on a fickle market that controls us, we instead take control of the market and force it to focus on something that matters. No more asking businesses nicely to reduce emissions, they've already had more than enough chances to shape up. No more allowing ridiculous polluters like NFTs to waste resources on things of little benefit. No more allowing big oil to avoid legal repercussions for sabotaging decades of environmental messaging.

    We also need to dedicate more to researching and developing ways to pull carbon from the atmosphere. There has been promise shown in certain carbon-trapping plants. Without capitalist waste, we produce enough to reach our goals while reducing the harm overproduction causes. Mobilizing special forces to repair environmentally impacted sites would also need to happen. History has shown that scientific progress happens much faster under well-funded public programs than under a capitalist system that put the practical benefits of a project second to profit.

    Transitioning the world to a planned economy that is not controlled by the whims of businessmen is the real 'only path'. It will lead to a less wasteful, less polluting society with the added benefit of raising the standard of living for most people.

    • Coolkidbozzy [he/him]
      ·
      2 years ago

      Most economists are afraid of differential equations so they pretend variables have no interaction with each other

      Also yeah gates isn't saying it, but reducing 'services' or energy isn't an option because it would mean Microsoft would lose value. So his two theoretical options are fascism or magical zero-carbon technologies that don't exist yet

      • gaycomputeruser [she/her]M
        ·
        2 years ago

        You have actually explained so much of economics to me with yoyr off hand comment. Economists are just physists that are somehow worse at math huh.

    • Assian_Candor [comrade/them]
      ·
      2 years ago

      Well said

      It annoys me to no end how these guys all :morshupls: about how we have to get carbon to zero WHEN THEY HAVEN’T EVEN DONE ANYTHING

      How about we ban private jets bill?

      Bitcoin?

      SUVs?