not sure if this has been posted here before, but it's not new. i felt like this was a pretty solid summary of the devolving situation in eastern europe. i think it lands where a lot of us are, which is that the working people of ukraine are suffering due to the profitable war mongering of capitalist powers (but also, the ukrainian state genuinely has a nazi problem, not that russia's invasion had anything to do with that really).
The immediate reaction wouldn't be military, but I think it follows that if we continued antagonizing them after that there would eventually be military action. 2014 should have obviously been the point where they knew further antagonizing would cause war. And Russia actually held back for a long time anyway. But like the video describes, Biden and Zelenskyy started publicly acting like Ukraine would join NATO soon, which became the tipping point.