Predictions that the US will balkanize on the model of Europeans states seems strange to me, given that there isn’t the kind of ethnic or national distinctions between states that is as ideologically powerful as those that lead to wars in Europe between different ethnic, national or religious groups.

My impression is different, mainly it will be caused by climate change not just the ideological/political differences.

We saw the attacks on the power grid right? We saw the Texas snowstorm. For me putting 1+1 together is very simple. The right wing states will face some severe climate disasters. The state can't and perhaps isn't even willing to do what is actualy necessary to save lives.

You can't solve climate disasters with money, giving people checks. So far this is literaly the only thing the US can do. I strongly believe COVID was litmus test for not just the US, but the whole capitalist world and they failed, obviously this is preaching to the choir here too.

But for the US specificaly, COVID relief was money instead of actually enforcing measures to save lives and the whole "essential workers" shit was just libs spitting on the face of the working class.

So what is the collapse scenario? A series of yearly climate catastrophes, the government wont help, chuds will be forced to migrate and those that don't will retaliate against the "government" by attacking liberal cities and infrastructure. That will give the government a reason to put troops on the ground and then you'll have the beginning of a conflict, chuds will feel the government is more willing to protect the major "liberal" cities while the poor/rural areas are devastated by climate change.

Of course I could be wrong, but point is I don't see any of this based on EU style politics/cultural differences at all.