this is vaguely related to the string theory related post from a day or two ago, it's all bazinga science folks TL;DW string theory is a big thing because people that read pop science really liked it and it took a long time for physicists to come out in force and say "this is untestable garbage"
I agree with you completely. He could simply do better. We are speculating on odds. Of which I am not as optimistic as you.
If I was in a position to try to talk the man into a more just course of action it might matter, but in these particulars it does not
"I don't think he could make those changes" is not the same claim as "he would not likely make those changes."
The ability to do so is not the same thing as the likelihood that he would use that ability.
This defeatism/fatalism is exhausting. I sincerely worry you may have internalized way too much of the messaging of the show you're making excuses for here.