A roulette wheel came up red 32 times in a row in 1943, so you should go buy a lottery ticket right? It is a very real possibility that you could win, and anyone that claims such "I am going to win the lottery tomorrow" is not supported by probability is being needlessly pendantic right?
To use the example you were using from the article to apparently try to own me... Covid was the red 32 times in this analogy. It happened. Funny how in retrospect, they are both actually something of an inevitability if the warnings of people who did predict them aren't heeded. Just like rolling red 32 times is if you have millions of wheels continuing to spin without stopping, guess what... odds go up. No, I'm not going out to bet my life savings on 32 red in a row tomorrow. The same way I'm not nor did I *ever imply we're all literally going to drop literally dead literally tomorrow. But 32 red actually happening somewhere in the world at some point in the very past? Yeah... hmm.. it happened, go figure. Thanks for reminding us all that even seemingly low probability events actually really do happen.
Sorry for the late reply, I actually didn't log in for the last couple days after this.
Hey thank you for digging into this as well. The pedantry is tiring.
Thanks for doing the lions share of trying to push back and reason with the deluge of pedantry, in this thread but also in others I've seen too. I'm convinced that when people start using that as a tactic in their argumentation, they're no longer arguing with me anymore so much as their own cognitive dissonance. They know on some level they're just plain wrong. But that's too hard to own up to, so instead they try to find something to nitpick at in your wording. If they can shift the argument into focusing on some insignificant hole in your phrasing or onto an analogy you used that isn't a complete and perfect 1-to-1 example, they can feel emotionally safe in writing off your position. Then they can likewise feel emotionally safe in not having to examine their own position and can continue feeling Right and Correct that they know the Truth.
I know I'm not saying anything new, but it helps to remind myself of that when having to put up with the kind of bullshit you were getting swamped with in this thread (that I also waded into). It's especially frustrating to have to put up with it here. And from a mod apparently too.
the "we're all going to die" was something someone else said if you're so caught up on that kind of ridiculous cringey pedantry, but what they were referring to was human extinction as a result of climate change. If you are truly incapable of understanding context or anything but the most literal and absolute interpretation of any combination of words ever used, your qualm is with them. No one, not even the person I was disagreeing with who said that, believes anyone was ever saying "every person reading this is going to die tomorrow and it is 110% absolutely unavoidable."
What is being discussed here is climate change ending the species. Which remains a very real possibility, which is what I said, which is what everyone here who reads this, even you, knows is what is being discussed. It is not only NOT irresponsible to point out this very real possibility, it is irresponsible and foolish denialism to imply otherwise.
Now kindly sod off, you bad-faith-arguing, asinine pedant. I won't be reading anything else you say to me.
"we're all going to die" was something someone else said
Which you jumped in go defend as a reasonable position.
What is being discussed here is climate change ending the species
That's where we are now, but that is absolutely not where we were when I began this conversation several hours before you jumped in with a position that was not unambiguous enough to differentiate from the original doomer position.
I'm sorry I'm being such a ball buster about this and I'm glad we agree about the probabilities of immediate extinction and the possibility of eventual extinction in the end, but I absolutely think it's important to be very precise about this and not unnecessarily blackpill people.
A roulette wheel came up red 32 times in a row in 1943, so you should go buy a lottery ticket right? It is a very real possibility that you could win, and anyone that claims such "I am going to win the lottery tomorrow" is not supported by probability is being needlessly pendantic right?
To use the example you were using from the article to apparently try to own me... Covid was the red 32 times in this analogy. It happened. Funny how in retrospect, they are both actually something of an inevitability if the warnings of people who did predict them aren't heeded. Just like rolling red 32 times is if you have millions of wheels continuing to spin without stopping, guess what... odds go up. No, I'm not going out to bet my life savings on 32 red in a row tomorrow. The same way I'm not nor did I *ever imply we're all literally going to drop literally dead literally tomorrow. But 32 red actually happening somewhere in the world at some point in the very past? Yeah... hmm.. it happened, go figure. Thanks for reminding us all that even seemingly low probability events actually really do happen.
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Sorry for the late reply, I actually didn't log in for the last couple days after this.
Thanks for doing the lions share of trying to push back and reason with the deluge of pedantry, in this thread but also in others I've seen too. I'm convinced that when people start using that as a tactic in their argumentation, they're no longer arguing with me anymore so much as their own cognitive dissonance. They know on some level they're just plain wrong. But that's too hard to own up to, so instead they try to find something to nitpick at in your wording. If they can shift the argument into focusing on some insignificant hole in your phrasing or onto an analogy you used that isn't a complete and perfect 1-to-1 example, they can feel emotionally safe in writing off your position. Then they can likewise feel emotionally safe in not having to examine their own position and can continue feeling Right and Correct that they know the Truth.
I know I'm not saying anything new, but it helps to remind myself of that when having to put up with the kind of bullshit you were getting swamped with in this thread (that I also waded into). It's especially frustrating to have to put up with it here. And from a mod apparently too.
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And so we come upon the limits of the frequentist interpretation of probability and it's inability to work on single trials.
So we do. And So you continue to dig your own hole while pretending you're doing something other than prove my point.
That telling people that they're all going to die of climate change is irresponsible and not backed by current models or projections?
the "we're all going to die" was something someone else said if you're so caught up on that kind of ridiculous cringey pedantry, but what they were referring to was human extinction as a result of climate change. If you are truly incapable of understanding context or anything but the most literal and absolute interpretation of any combination of words ever used, your qualm is with them. No one, not even the person I was disagreeing with who said that, believes anyone was ever saying "every person reading this is going to die tomorrow and it is 110% absolutely unavoidable."
What is being discussed here is climate change ending the species. Which remains a very real possibility, which is what I said, which is what everyone here who reads this, even you, knows is what is being discussed. It is not only NOT irresponsible to point out this very real possibility, it is irresponsible and foolish denialism to imply otherwise.
Now kindly sod off, you bad-faith-arguing, asinine pedant. I won't be reading anything else you say to me.
Which you jumped in go defend as a reasonable position.
That's where we are now, but that is absolutely not where we were when I began this conversation several hours before you jumped in with a position that was not unambiguous enough to differentiate from the original doomer position.
I'm sorry I'm being such a ball buster about this and I'm glad we agree about the probabilities of immediate extinction and the possibility of eventual extinction in the end, but I absolutely think it's important to be very precise about this and not unnecessarily blackpill people.
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I'm not referring to you here, I'm saying in general.
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No, just that the fact that certain low probability event occurred does not imply all low probability events must occur.