https://nitter.net/TarikCyrilAmar/status/1678332708227895297

  • aaro [they/them, she/her]
    ·
    1 year ago

    I feel like a viable option for #4 would be to fortify their border and build up troops and artillery right next door. As wild as Ukraine is, I don't think they would have shelled or bombed Russian territory, and I think it would have kept them a little more chill about their ethnic cleansing for fear of retaliation.

    • JuneFall [none/use name]
      ·
      1 year ago

      There are no good natural stop gaps on the border between Ukraine and Russia in 2013. It is understandable to want to reduce the length you have to defend and have also more defense in depth. Since Russia is currently relative to plenty country groups west of it on its maximum point.

      Its population is structured in a way that combat ready people will diminish over the next years, plenty of weapon systems that are in use in this war would not have been able to be used in say 20 years, the economic comparison between Russia and Ukraine and a couple of relevant countries means that in economic might relative to NATO countries Russia will weaken unless event change it.

      This means among the best points for such a war was now. Shock & awe didn't work out, which made the war much more costly.

      In current military journals the conviction is that mobile/active troops will always be able to break through passive/fortified positions. This means bunker would need to be built in depth which costs quite a bit and makes you withdraw capital from other aspects of your country. So I don't think bunkers are the answer to #4.

    • MoreAmphibians [none/use name]
      ·
      1 year ago

      little more chill about their ethnic cleansing for fear of retaliation.

      Russia had a literal invasion army on the border of Donbas in 2022 and Ukraine responded by increasing the artillery bombardment of Donbas. How many more thousands of troops do you think Russia could put on that border to chill Ukraine out?