Explicitly-reported confidence intervals, standard errors, and p-values for shit like Trump's approval rating or probability of winning would be extremely useful.
It wouldn't, but it would make me feel better, as a nerd and someone that took statistics in college. But the whole 538 business model depends on giving a false sense of accuracy. For an event with an n of one, for the layman, is there any real difference between 60%, 75% or 85%? Maybe as a campaign director it would help you to spread out resources and shit, but for a person checking the news, its like reporting the temperature to the 100th place (i.e. 68.34 degrees).
Explicitly-reported confidence intervals, standard errors, and p-values for shit like Trump's approval rating or probability of winning would be extremely useful.
It wouldn't, but it would make me feel better, as a nerd and someone that took statistics in college. But the whole 538 business model depends on giving a false sense of accuracy. For an event with an n of one, for the layman, is there any real difference between 60%, 75% or 85%? Maybe as a campaign director it would help you to spread out resources and shit, but for a person checking the news, its like reporting the temperature to the 100th place (i.e. 68.34 degrees).