Fucking embarrassing.
Bugs the shit out of me that 538 still have the 10th place on their odds, while doing so much work to make the odds human brain understandable (favored to win, 67 out of 100, etc). Showing the whole 0 to 100 on their chart and some damn error bars wouldn't hurt either.
Yes, I know, it doesn't matter, but still bugs me.
Explicitly-reported confidence intervals, standard errors, and p-values for shit like Trump's approval rating or probability of winning would be extremely useful.
extremely useful
It wouldn't, but it would make me feel better, as a nerd and someone that took statistics in college. But the whole 538 business model depends on giving a false sense of accuracy. For an event with an n of one, for the layman, is there any real difference between 60%, 75% or 85%? Maybe as a campaign director it would help you to spread out resources and shit, but for a person checking the news, its like reporting the temperature to the 100th place (i.e. 68.34 degrees).
We're here now and hopefully we learned something along the way.
2016 showed that the general election debates don't fucking matter at all. Trump made a complete ass of himself in the debates with Clinton, the moderators tried to rig the questions in her favor, and most of the pundits predictably declared Clinton the winner. I expect the same to be true here. It doesn't matter how bad Trump is, Biden is gonna go over like a wet fart for anyone who hasn't already gaslit themselves into voting for him.
Trump "won" the debates in 2016 as far as his side was concerned and same for Clinton. it was the VP debates where Kaine got schooled by Pence that really had a clear winner. There was no one from Trump or Clinton's side who switched over from the debates, just as I don't expect them to change here.
This was shortly after the debate.
What are liberals
Future chapos.
