I think the "decades of insurgency" thing is already set in stone.
Can you conceive of a scenario where the region becomes safer than it was between when the coup got bloody and Russia invaded now that there's 100x more weapons and organized fascists?
Don't think this is too likely - in your scenario, NATO would likely break up within 5-10 years and Europe would rid itself of a lot US influence.
I think the "decades of insurgency" thing is already set in stone.
Can you conceive of a scenario where the region becomes safer than it was between when the coup got bloody and Russia invaded now that there's 100x more weapons and organized fascists?