Latest results seem to show Biden is ahead, but at the same time it looks like Trump is going to win every other undecided state. Is that the case or are there other parameters to take into account?

  • alexandra_kollontai [she/her]
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    4 years ago

    https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/

    I ran some numbers and came up with this:

    • safe to assume trump gets GA
    • trump will likely win NC, BUT if biden wins it then he probably wins the entire election
    • MI is too close to call and could go either way, BUT if trump wins it then he probably wins the entire election

    my prediction is that trump will legitimately win the EC, but even if he doesn't, he's already called the whole election a fraud so god knows what happens then.

      • Reversi [none/use name]
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        4 years ago

        "Folks, the gig economy and gay people, it's tremendous! Rent control? Very unfair. It's a real shame, everyone's saying it. Controlling our rent, what's next, controlling our gay? Controlling our gigs? We have the most gay gigs, don't we folks?"

        • Llituro [he/him, they/them]
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          4 years ago

          In retrospect, Nate Silver might be my favorite grifter. He figured out how to get dumb, moneyed liberals to pay him and his company a shit ton to softly coo at them that they're going to win Texas. And he doesn't even really care that he's wrong, this is sport for him, it's academic. He just wants to tinker with his models to see what they'll say. Anyone who works with data will tell you that it's hard to get right, especially with the constantly moving target of US elections. But he just gets to keep doing it anyway.

    • MolotovHalfEmpty [he/him]
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      4 years ago

      Yeah, if he doesn't it's going to be because of a massive influx of nearly all Biden votes by mail that haven't been counted yet. If that happens, regardless of whether it was legitimate or not, it's gonna look sus, so the GOP machine will go into overdrive to get what they can thrown out, take it the courts etc and there's a good chance his supporters will go nuts.