• Addfwyn@lemmygrad.ml
    ·
    1 year ago

    My favorite part of that thread is how utterly convinced they all still are that Ukraine is winning and Russia is falling apar

    Remember when Russia was running out of missiles and they would have to surrender any day now? Oddly, they seem to still have ammunition...like a year later.

    The impression I get is that the west now realizes that Ukrainian offensive has failed, and seems that US wants to move towards some sort of a frozen conflict. However, I really don’t see why Russia would go along with that.

    I agree, I think once upon a time that may have been possible, but Russia knows by now that anything short of an actual treaty being signed has no meaning. Honestly, I would imagine they are skeptical how much weight a peace treaty would even have given we know now that there was never any plan to honour the Minsk accords. They'd have to know that allowing a prolonged stalemate would just allow NATO to pump more weapons and materiel into Ukraine. As much as that honestly would bleed NATO of resources more than Russia, I doubt there is any real desire to lose more lives.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmygrad.ml
      hexagon
      ·
      1 year ago

      Right, I don't think Russia would want to keep fighting this war indefinitely and they can't trust the west with any peace deal now because that will just lead to the same situation that resulted in the war in the first place. Given that, there's only one option left which is to absorb all the territory that's not rabidly anti Russian and turn what's left of Ukraine into a dysfunctional rump state.

      I think this is the nightmare scenario for the west because trying to keep propping it up will turn into an economic black hole. Meanwhile, western economies are already contracting, and the burden of keeping Ukraine going isn't going to help things. On the other hand, letting Ukraine collapse would mean a massive refugee crisis in Europe.