I am of the opinion that the US is jockeying for a limited naval conflict with China in the South China Sea in order to disrupt the shipping lanes to which the Chinese economy is (currently) dependent upon.
I think the US is remilitarising its Allies in the Pacific in order to stack the odds in its favour.
I am waiting for the moment when the US manufactures a Gulf of Tokin incident as a pretext. But with that being said, the Century of Humiliation and its lessons are etched into the consciousness of modern Chinese politics so in many respects I would expect China to seek deescalation where possible. Although the US is like a rabid dog so who knows if deescalation would be a viable strategy once there's blood in the water, so to speak.
Here's a comment thread where I go into further detail and provide evidence for my position. Note that this comment was written a few days before the news of Huawei's new chip being used in their latest phone so, although the Chinese semiconductor industry is still lagging behind, China is making strides to catching up on cutting edge chips. Whether this will provide deterrence for China or whether this will cause the US to accelerate its designs for war I do not know.
I am of the opinion that the US is jockeying for a limited naval conflict with China in the South China Sea in order to disrupt the shipping lanes to which the Chinese economy is (currently) dependent upon.
I think the US is remilitarising its Allies in the Pacific in order to stack the odds in its favour.
I am waiting for the moment when the US manufactures a Gulf of Tokin incident as a pretext. But with that being said, the Century of Humiliation and its lessons are etched into the consciousness of modern Chinese politics so in many respects I would expect China to seek deescalation where possible. Although the US is like a rabid dog so who knows if deescalation would be a viable strategy once there's blood in the water, so to speak.
Here's a comment thread where I go into further detail and provide evidence for my position. Note that this comment was written a few days before the news of Huawei's new chip being used in their latest phone so, although the Chinese semiconductor industry is still lagging behind, China is making strides to catching up on cutting edge chips. Whether this will provide deterrence for China or whether this will cause the US to accelerate its designs for war I do not know.
Good analysis. Here and in the linked comment. Hope China has the sense not to be provoked. But the US is good at getting under one's skin.