The coronavirus was circulating in Italy since September 2019, a study by the National Cancer Institute, INT, of the Italian city of Milan shows.
The World Health Organization has said COVID-19, the respiratory disease it causes, were unknown before the outbreak was first reported in Wuhan, in central China, in December.
Italy’s first COVID-19 patient was detected on 21 February in a little town near Milan, in the northern region of Lombardy.
But the Italian researchers’ findings, published by the INT’s scientific magazine Tumori Journal, show that 11.6 per cent of 959 healthy volunteers enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020, had developed coronavirus antibodies well before February.
There are no robust data on the real onset of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and spread in the prepandemic period worldwide. We investigated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD)–specific antibodies in blood samples of 959 asymptomatic individuals enrolled in a prospective lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 to track the date of onset, frequency, and temporal and geographic variations across the Italian regions. SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific antibodies were detected in 111 of 959 (11.6%) individuals, starting from September 2019 (14%), with a cluster of positive cases (>30%) in the second week of February 2020 and the highest number (53.2%) in Lombardy. This study shows an unexpected very early circulation of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic individuals in Italy several months before the first patient was identified, and clarifies the onset and spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Finding SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in asymptomatic people before the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy may reshape the history of pandemic.
Yyyeah that research is kinda questionable for a few reasons, primarily that somehow all of the people they found antibodies in were asymptomatic during that period EVEN THOUGH they were 55+ years old AND smokers. This sounds incredibly unlikely, almost as incredibly unlikely as the insanely high number reported. Like, yeah, it's not a representative group and all, but 11% BEFORE it was even detected? Yeah, no. Even if we don't consider that group representative, I don't see any serious reason why the prevalence among that group should be that much higher. I'm pretty sure they fucked something up because it makes 0 sense. For context, up to December the CDC estimates around 15% of the US had contracted COVID in total. Again, that's up to this December. It is a HUGE number, with vast consequences, and we're supposed to accept that a percentage about 2/3rds of that had infected Italy before the disease was even detected? There should be follow up studies because this one is just weird and suspicious.
Covid 19 did originate in Italy, or at the very least, had infected a lot of Italy well before the Wuhan outbreak was noticed.
From an SBS news article on the subject:
And here's the study they're talking about
Yyyeah that research is kinda questionable for a few reasons, primarily that somehow all of the people they found antibodies in were asymptomatic during that period EVEN THOUGH they were 55+ years old AND smokers. This sounds incredibly unlikely, almost as incredibly unlikely as the insanely high number reported. Like, yeah, it's not a representative group and all, but 11% BEFORE it was even detected? Yeah, no. Even if we don't consider that group representative, I don't see any serious reason why the prevalence among that group should be that much higher. I'm pretty sure they fucked something up because it makes 0 sense. For context, up to December the CDC estimates around 15% of the US had contracted COVID in total. Again, that's up to this December. It is a HUGE number, with vast consequences, and we're supposed to accept that a percentage about 2/3rds of that had infected Italy before the disease was even detected? There should be follow up studies because this one is just weird and suspicious.