its gonna be a fuckin mess imo. my guess is that Trump is gonna play kingmaker, whoever gets Trump's blessing will win (maybe Trump will pick himself, who knows how he'll feel in a couple years)

  • Straight_Depth [they/them]
    ·
    4 years ago

    The GOP has, in many ways, created a monster that it cannot adequately reign in by ceding ground to trumpism. The corporate wing (which is all of them, make no mistake) has no meaningful answer now that they're trying to divest themselves of his legacy by going back to decency politics with racist characteristics as they always had. This means they face a difficult choice; divest themselves of their faux populist wing and lose potential trumpist followers, which would be very ill-advised for their electoral chances, or produce new faux populists who may actually have to make token but tangible efforts to reign in monopolies as they so love to claim they want to do, at the risk of harming their capital. It's lose-lose in many ways.

    Their true nightmare is creating a schism in the party for real; imagine if someone carrying the name and brand recognition of Trump and a handful of key allies split off into their own party/ran as independents by running wild with the "GOP is RINOS/traitors/liberals/gommies/degenerates/pedos/etc" if they are denied their chances, especially with a second run.

    We shall have to see how the future GOP handles this. The voters want Trump and trumpists, the GOP wants to win. These two modes are currently at odds given the result of this election. Trumpism has lost the presidency and failed to materialize significant gains in Congress, and might even face a slim but not impossible chance of losing the senate. Pence's ambitions of using the role of VP as a springboard for a future presidential run are dashed (lol get fucked). The GOP can't depend on gullible fucks like the Dem supporters to pour billions in donations just to lose. They only retain their material benefits and profits by winning, and, paradoxically, you can only win if you cheat, and you can only cheat the system to enable you to win harder by winning legitimately in the first place.

    In effect they are between a rock and a hard place in the short term, and may face some sort of new Tea Party coup or a proper schism. In the longer term? Material conditions under Biden's mishandling will create millions more angrier, more fanatical, more openly fraudulent chuds who will manifest their rage at the ballot and in violence.

    There are some things to consider: demographics are shifting whether they like it or not. Within 2-3 more electoral cycles I suspect Texas will turn blue. Unless they push for something like an electoral college-in-an-electoral-college for every state (or just their strongholds) to further dilute the power of every vote (after all every tree, fencepost, groundhog, and acre of farmland deserves a vote), this will cause another electoral crisis for them forcing them to either push for the abolition of the EC, adoption of alternative voting systems, or just more ghoulish voting restrictions. If the Senate flips and DC and PR become states, that's several more EC votes to consider and more senators potentially lost. In the neoliberal hellscape that is US politics right now, things are shaky for them. Never underestimate the Dem's ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, however. The Dems WILL fuck this all up somehow.

    • Lil_Revolitionary [she/her,they/them]
      hexagon
      ·
      4 years ago

      the only thing i can imagine right now is more trump, and crude imitations of trump. it seems like a dead end, but i thought they hit the dead end in 2016 so idk where it will go

      • Straight_Depth [they/them]
        ·
        edit-2
        4 years ago

        I for sure believe we haven't seen the last of Trump, and once Biden is in office he will be back on cable news 24/7 as he's been the single greatest blessing for shock and outrage addiction media. Trump gets views and ratings, so they'll gladly amplify his voice any chance they get. So I'm not too worried about the names and minutiae of who will or won't run in 2024 because that depends on how the GOP will shift their strategy. If they're willing to let Trump run another soft coup and fall in line like in 2016 then they're playing with fire depending on Biden's performance and shifts in demographics. They'll also a have a "fair" open primary without any incumbent to unseat, so they might rig it against Trump if the corporate wing senses they'll lose again.

    • jmichigan_frog [he/him]
      ·
      4 years ago

      Counterpoint: Trump helped win an upset election in 2016 that an establishment republican would have lost. He has given the GOP a lock on the federal judiciary and boosted downballot races this cycle. Republicans have a lock on the senate, courts, and state legislatures that they will keep for a generation. Trump did surprisingly well among Latino voters, so demographics don’t necessarily break against Republicans. Resentment that is directed at the poor and “cultural elites” is a powerful bloc that doesn’t directly threaten capital. And plenty of billionaires are crazy CHUDs themselves who can’t think longterm. There’s no real schism in the Republican party-just an intensification of the pseudo-populist petty bourgeois drive that dates back to Goldwater ‘64.