I've been following it off and on for a few years since some old friends of mine were really into it back then, and going by their pace of development and the fact that shit like NPC AI and animations still don't work I'd have to put Squadron 42 at least two years off still. For the multiplayer game it's harder to say, though: considering the complete and utter lack of any consistent or tangible design goals they could definitely "release" it in the next year or two as a half finished trainwreck that has at least a barebones placeholder system in place for all of its "necessary" mechanics.
It's really a fascinating project to watch, because it's an absurdly funded project with a very large team and what they've managed to make the engine do is nothing short of mindblowing, but at the same time all the actual game parts of it have taken a backseat to engine design demands that are unnecessary compared to more traditional "smoke and mirrors" design philosophy. That is to say, they've spent a disproportionate amount of time and labor chasing after Chris Robert's absurd whims and demands for high-fidelity simulation instead of the "close enough" traditional solutions that would probably work better in practice, and that's meant that actually designing a functional game with basic features like "working AI and animations" just hasn't happened and quite possibly never will.
I think the most likely "release" state for Star Citizen is going to be something like a technically feature complete open beta version released with some fanfare and an assurance that there won't be any more progress wipes, followed a year or two later by an "official release" that changes little or nothing, thus blunting any backlash by spreading it out. Further speculation: they'll probably start that "open beta" stage when Squadron 42 is released.
Alternatively, they may never actually get the multiplayer in a stable state because their engine demands are just irreconcilable with networking due to old design decisions they can't fix now. Or Chris Roberts dies of covid and whoever takes over after him pulls a rockstar and decides that "mass of chewing gum and bailing wire that is on fire at least 70% of the time" is an acceptable state for netcode to be in and hurries it out the door.
I've been following it off and on for a few years since some old friends of mine were really into it back then, and going by their pace of development and the fact that shit like NPC AI and animations still don't work I'd have to put Squadron 42 at least two years off still. For the multiplayer game it's harder to say, though: considering the complete and utter lack of any consistent or tangible design goals they could definitely "release" it in the next year or two as a half finished trainwreck that has at least a barebones placeholder system in place for all of its "necessary" mechanics.
It's really a fascinating project to watch, because it's an absurdly funded project with a very large team and what they've managed to make the engine do is nothing short of mindblowing, but at the same time all the actual game parts of it have taken a backseat to engine design demands that are unnecessary compared to more traditional "smoke and mirrors" design philosophy. That is to say, they've spent a disproportionate amount of time and labor chasing after Chris Robert's absurd whims and demands for high-fidelity simulation instead of the "close enough" traditional solutions that would probably work better in practice, and that's meant that actually designing a functional game with basic features like "working AI and animations" just hasn't happened and quite possibly never will.
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I think the most likely "release" state for Star Citizen is going to be something like a technically feature complete open beta version released with some fanfare and an assurance that there won't be any more progress wipes, followed a year or two later by an "official release" that changes little or nothing, thus blunting any backlash by spreading it out. Further speculation: they'll probably start that "open beta" stage when Squadron 42 is released.
Alternatively, they may never actually get the multiplayer in a stable state because their engine demands are just irreconcilable with networking due to old design decisions they can't fix now. Or Chris Roberts dies of covid and whoever takes over after him pulls a rockstar and decides that "mass of chewing gum and bailing wire that is on fire at least 70% of the time" is an acceptable state for netcode to be in and hurries it out the door.