Yeah I saw (1). It mostly made me almost chuckle in the “I’m actually wincing inside” way (I’m not even surprised at that kind of grift anyway, I’ve just seen too much of it from coiners)
To (2), heh. Yeah, it’s pretty wild.
(3) I saw, but didn’t see the replies because i refuse to give birdsite logged-in view metrics. My tiny part in helping nosedive Felon Tusk’s shittery. But it in turn means I can’t see replies, because they intentionally broke reply-visibility on loginless display
I more meant my post as to the person instead of the “product”, but I guess I wasn’t really clear about that, mea culpa
Like https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bAdqazixuRY except because it’s 2023 it’ll be a gazillion low-minute supercut workshop clips on TikTok/insta/yt shorts, showing no useful detail at all beyond hustlecult vibing
The line between “actually believes $x” and “appears to actually believe $x” can be made heeeeeella fuzzy (and people in that space take advantage of that)
Curious about the latter half of your remarks. Is that opinion, or something grounded in other knowledge that isn’t widely known yet?
I actually really liked this reply purely on the fact that it walked a different avenue of response
Because yeah indeed, under the lens of raw naïve implementation, the utter breadth of scope involved in basically anything is so significantly beyond useful (or even tenuous) human comprehension it’s staggering
We are, notably, remarkably competent at abstraction[0], and this goes a hell of a long way in affordance but it’s also not an answer
I’ll probably edit this later to flesh the post out a bit, because I’m feeling bad at words rn
[0] - this ties in with the “lossy at scale” post I need to get to writing (soon.gif)
this is a big set of very many people and lots of details
are wrong about a lot of things
many of them about many things, yes
and assholes
some, provably
And also the singularity (which predates yuds existence) is not in fact possible by the mechanism I outlined
whether it's the wet dream of kurzweil or yud or whoever else, doesn't matter? but as to the details.. you're engaging with this like the rats do (yes, told you, you only half escaped). you "set the example", and then "test the details"
just ... don't?
the siren song of this is "okay what if I change the details of the experiment slightly?"
we've had the trolley problem for ages, doesn't mean it's just "solved". you won't manage to "solve" whether the singularity can happen or not here, for the same reason
"shitcoiners or oil companies.. who wore it best?"
but the rest of your reply reminds me that someone (I think steve or blake?) mentioned a thing here recently about a book on blaming guthenberg for this state of fucking everything up. I want to go read that, and I really need to get around to writing my rantpost about the "the problem of information transfer at scale is that scale is lossy, and this is why ..... [handwaves at many problems, examples continue]" thing that at least 8 friends of mine have had to put up with in DM over the last few years
first off: eh wtf, why is this on sneerclub? kinda awks. but I'll try give it a fair and honest answer.
First, let me say that what broke me from the herd at lesswrong was specifically the calls for AI pauses.
look, congrats on breaking out, but uh... you're still wearing the prison jumpsuit in the grocery store and that's why people are looking at you weirdly
"yay you got out" but you got only half the reason right
one note here: "plausible" vs "possible" are very divergent paths and likelihoods
in the Total Possible Space Of All Things That Might Ever Happen, of course it's possible, but so are many, many other things
it seems like the problems current AI can’t solve, like robotics, continuous learning, module reuse - the things needed to reach a general level of capabilities and for AI to do many but not all human jobs - are near future
eh. this ties back to my opener - you're still too convinced about something on essentially no grounded basis other than industry hype-optimism
I can link deepmind papers with all of these, published in 2022 or 2023.
look I don't want to shock you but that's basically what they get paid to do. and (perverse) incentives apply - of course goog isn't just going to spend a couple decabillion then go "oh shit, hmm, we've reached the limits of what this can do. okay everyone, pack it in, we're done with this one!", they're gonna keep trying to milk it to make some of those decabillions back. and there's plenty of useful suckers out there
And if AI can be general and control robots, and since making robots is a task human technicians and other workers can do, this does mean a form of Singularity is possible. Maybe not the breathless utopia by Ray Kurzweil but a fuckton of robots.
okay this is a weird leap and it's borderline LW shittery so I'm not going to spend much effort on it, but I'll give you this
it doesn't fucking matter.
even if we do somehow crack even the smallest bit of computational sentience, the plausibility of rapid acting self-reinforcing runaway self-improvement on such a thing is basically nil. we're 3 years down the line on the Evergreen getting stuck in the suez and fabs shutting down (with downstream orders being cancelled) and as a result of it a number of chips are still effectively unobtanium (even if and when you have piles and piles of money to throw at the problem). multiple industries, worldwide, are all throwing fucking tons of money at the problem to try recover from the slightest little interruption in supply (and like, "slight", it wasn't even like fabs burned down or something, they just stopped shipping for a while)
just think of the utter scope of doing robotics. first you have to solve a whole bunch of design shit (which by itself involves a lot of from-principles directed innovation and inspiration and shit). then you have to figure out how to build the thing in a lab. then you have to scale it? which involves ordering thousounds of parts and SKUs from hundred of vendors. then find somewhere/somehow to assemble it? and firmware and iteration and all that shit?
this isn't fucking age of ultron, and tony's parking-space fab isn't a real thing.
this outcome just isn't fucking likely on any nearby horizon imo
So I was wondering what the people here generally think
we generally think the people who believe this are unintentional suckers or wilful grifters. idk what else to tell you? thought that was pretty clear
There are “boomer” forums I know of where they also generally deny AI is possible anytime soon, claim GPT-n is a stochastic parrot, and make fun of tech bros as being hypesters who collect 300k to edit javascript and drive Teslas*.
wat
I also have noticed that the whole rationalist schtick of “what is your probability” seems like asking for “joint probabilities”, aka smoke a joint and give a probability.
okay this gave me a momentary chuckle, and made me remember JRPhttp://darklab.org/jrp.txt (which is a fun little shitpost to know about)
from here, answering your questions as you asked them in order (and adding just my own detail in areas where others may not already have covered something)
no, not a fuck, not even slightly. definitely not with the current set of bozos at the helm or techniques as the foundation or path to it.
no, see above
who gives a shit? but seriously, no, see above. even if it did, perverse incentives and economic pressures from sweeping hand motion all this other shit stands a very strong chance to completely fuck it all up 60 ways to sunday
snore
if any of this happens at some point at all, the first few generations of it will probably look the same as all other technology ever - a force-multiplier with humans in the loop, doing things and making shit. and whatever happens in that phase will set the one on whatever follows so I'm not even going to try predict that
*“epistemic status”: I uh do work for a tech company, my job title is machine learning engineer, my girlfriend is much younger than me and sometimes fucks other dudes, and we have 2 Teslas…
....okay? congrats? is that fulfilling for you? does it make you happy?
not really sure why you mentioned the gf thing at all? there's no social points to be won here
closing thoughts: really weird post yo. like, "5 yud-steered squirrels in a trenchcoat" weird.
·il y a 1 an
·il y a 1 an
Y’know, I don’t recognise either of these things (prima facie). Might recognise output influenced by / derived off them?
But now I guess I have to look at ‘em both sometime