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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: July 1st, 2023

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  • tbh I read the statement about epistemic status as ironic. I was disabused of this notion rapidly.

    A bad habit rationalism teaches is to treat a stock verbiage of polite and open discussion as on the one hand (a) integral to productive conversation, and (b) automatically generative of productive conversation. But people aren’t like that, because people are in general really smart listeners (and readers) when it comes to figuring out what is stock verbiage and what is meant in earnest.

    Thanks for articulating this.





  • Or an analogy. I think gpt-4 is like the data from the Chicago pile. That data was enough to convince the domain experts then a nuke was going to work to the point they didn’t test Fat Man, you believe not.

    Are you mixing up Fat Man and Little Boy? Because Fat Man was an implosion-type bomb, just like the Trinity device. Little Boy was a gun-type. From vague memories of Rhode's book, they wanted implosion types to maximize Pu weight to kiloton ratio, but it was much less straightforward than a gun-type bomb.






    1. no
    2. no, (follows from 1)
    3. no, but space exploration by drones with semi-autonomous decision making might be feasible. The power levels for such tech will have to go way down though.
    4. define "mass transition". I believe a lot of jobs that require humans now (like customer support) will be enthusiastically robotized, but not that that outcome will be postive for either the workers or consumers. I doubt it will be more that maybe 10% of the total workforce though.
    5. like someone mentioned, we can see "artificial intelligences" (corporations) do bad things right now and we aren't stopping them. Considering everybody in AI research subconsciously subscribes to the California ideology, there's no way they have the introspection to truly design an "aligned" AI.