junebug2 [comrade/them, she/her]

then google it. mr. klein has been publicly feuding with hasan for months. people here are broadly familiar with that. you pushing the glasses up on your nose and saying, “um, actually, if events aren’t mentioned in the article from fox news, then they didn’t happen,” is asinine. no investigation, no right to speak

countries on the persian gulf exported around 18 million barrels of oil per day in 2022 (according to wikipedia). now, ~1.8 million of those were from Oman, who’s kinda on the outside, and Iran themselves. i think there’s an argument for this collapsing the global economy specially because of knock-on effects with China’s oil imports almost entirely coming through the Gulf, but i think there’s an earlier problem.

crude oil has ‘flavors’, namely light or heavy (referring to the length of hydrocarbon chains) and sour or sweet (referring to the relative amount of sulfur). the upshot of that is that oil refineries are built to take in specific flavors of oil. part of the reason Chevron is so mad about Venezuela is that, for fairly obvious geographical reasons, Venezuelan oil fits the refineries for the USA pretty well. shorter carbon chains have higher boiling points (more butane and less boat oil) and sweet oil does not need to have the sulfur removed from it. for instance, Saudi Arabia’s most common crude oil export is called ‘Arab Light’, which is a medium and sour crude oil. if Iran strikes at oil rigs, refineries, and distribution centers, there is no guarantee that other, unaffected infrastructure can actually do the same job. refineries built for sweet crude can not refine Arab Light. there could be barrels and barrels of oil sitting on boats and in pipelines, unable to be refined.

all of that is to say, depending on how and where Iran strikes oil infrastructure, the issue could very quickly become whether or not certain petroleum products are available at all, not just if the price is spiking. the price would also spike. there would be rationing and restrictions on international trade, most likely. in the areas most affected (hard to predict without knowing details), there would be pressure to declare ‘move it or lose it’ wars, with ‘it’ being all the fuel you currently have in stockpile. desperation and material interest can erase all alliances. the flip side of what could be several regional wars is that people are aware that those wars could happen. Saudi Arabia recently denounced genocide in Palestine (too little too late), and had meetings with the Iranian military. it’s certainly not a coincidence that Saudi Arabia didn’t start changing its tune until after True Promise II. Iran discussing strikes on oil infrastructure is as much a diplomatic tool as actually striking the infrastructure

they claim that the Luxemburg was an anti-militarist who wanted to achieve communism through democratic institutions. in order to ‘follow in their footsteps’, you have to complete focuses called “Civil Liberties” and “Embrace Democratic Institutions”. the shit-cherry on top is that your reward is to turn your neighbors into special puppets called “Volkskommissariats”.

now first off, Rosa Luxemburg is probably most famous for her 1899 book Reform or Revolution. she was opposed to reformism, and argued conclusively. i would not personally describe her as “embracing democratic institutions”. she is called by some a dem soc, and many argue that the lesson of the Spartacus League is that it was too much democracy, but paradox isn’t putting any nuance into this. they physically put this part of the tree right in the middle between communism and democracy. someone else could probably explain the details of her politics better.

the Volkskommissariat thing is actually the worst part. they are obvious reskins of Reichkomissariats, a game mechanic representing Nazi Germany setting up puppet regimes in occupied Europe. These were real institutions broadly responsible for managing forced labor and ethnic cleansing, but due to paradox policy against depicting war crimes, they are puppets that are easier to exploit. using the term ‘volk’ instead of people is always a weird red flag. it’s especially odd because in real life the USSR called their departments people’s commissariats (though that is not featured in the game). they somehow managed to smear Rosa as both a liberal and a fascist

they also explicitly added decisions to sell uranium to the highest bidder and focuses that sell Congolese gold and diamonds to fund Belgian reconstruction. both of these things are portrayed as buffs/ positive for the Congo. they also added the ability for Belgium to alter their colonial policy up to annexing and coring the Congo in a few months, ez pz. every single focus tree they add outside of the main area of WW2 is just creating save bloat, and of course paradox has to create racist and historically illiterate save bloat. don’t even get me started on what they did to rosa in this new dlc

i found an article mentioning thermobaric Shaheds from December 2023. The source is pretty mediocre. i also found this article from yesterday, which has some good technical information. Apparently, the factory that makes this particular warhead was hacked, so there’s a lot of information about what it can do.

In war reporting, i think thermobaric explosions or fuel-air explosions are often brought up to sound bad. It brings to mind terrorism and a cruel-seeming death. When the USA uses them though, they are precision weapons on account of the fact that a rapidly expanding explosion is more devastating to bunkers and fortifications than open air (it still obliterates things in the open air). As Russia moves through the last defensive lines from before 2022, i would expect them to use and need fewer anti-fortification strike tools.

43% of the votes have been counted. That 53% ‘no’ vote represents about 23% of the total expected votes. Broadly speaking, the first votes counted are from small and rural areas, and the last votes counted are from mail-in and urban areas. The first group tends to lean conservative, and the last tends to lean liberal or progressive or whatever. California is frequently pretty dogshit politically, but we aren’t going to know any results until like tomorrow afternoon at the earliest. People are happy to call it for Harris because it’s California, but for actually competitive issues it takes hours if not days. Something like 30% of votes were mail-in this year, and they couldn’t legally open those until the physical polls were closed.

Prop 2 is another bond, which i think is an inefficient way to fund anything. On the other hand, it’s the only way voters are allowed to influence the budget. i know some people thought the climate bond was more important, and they only wanted to approve one bond. i voted yes for it, but i can’t blame people for thinking it’s an increase in tax obligations that the government will waste.

Prop 34 is a no, and it’s written very confusingly. It’s a smokescreen to disguise the fact that exactly one organization will be affected: the AIDS healthcare foundation. Why is that? The foundation is a leading advocate for rent control measures across the state and operates affordable housing in Skid Row. 34 is a prop written by a bunch of billionaire landlords to punish the AIDS foundation.

i agree with your other prop stuff, but if you have questions about them i can answer those too

Drop Site News also reports that the leaks show the USA acknowledges the existence of “israeli” nuclear missiles. The second image, bottom left corner, says that they think such missiles are not being considered, for whatever it’s worth

Chevron has been developing a methodology for pushing back on attempts to regulate it. In 2022, they (and Aera, another oil company) spent $8 million to defeat a county measure. Ventura County has roughly 500,000 registered voters (for roughly 850,000 residents). That is, generously assuming that all those people voted, oil companies spent $16 per voter and achieved the desired result. Compare that to the cost of having to rip out and replace on shore and off shore oil rigs in order to comply with environmental regulations.

Their main innovation in methods for dealing with voters is relentless test messaging. They did not use the mass texts and form letters ‘from’ the candidate or the party, as we see even the current presidential candidate do. Instead, they made up five characters, hypothetical locals who would have their jobs and bills impacted negatively. i think most residents ended up getting messages ‘from’ two or three of them. To someone used to political texts or following events, not much of a change. But to someone used to skimming over or ignoring a form letter that’s way too long for a text message, there was a tighter emotional core. Go marketing! They also tried a nonsense television campaign about foreign oil leading to higher electricity prices (that’s not how California makes power).

i don’t know what Chevron might do differently for influencing assembly people, but the last time they tried to influence the law they got exactly what they wanted and didn’t get punished. Probably comes down to whether Caesar Newsom wants it or not. God help us all

shoutout to the combahee river collective statement, absolutely critical text. if people like that one, i also recommend cathy cohen’s “Punks, Bulldaggers, and Welfare Queens”

If you look up ‘beyul khenpajong’ on yandex or duckduckgo, you get almost exclusively articles about Chinese aggression and some tourism stuff. Most of them came out between March and August 2021, and the original source in English appears to be a Foreign Policy article from February 2021. That same article is what they are following up on, here. They also all use some variation of a phrase about the valley (which is what ‘beyul’ means) being sacred to Buddhism or important to the royal family of Bhutan. The smug phrasing about how awful and aggressive China is sets my teeth on edge.

Reading between the lines of this article, China and Bhutan have had a number of territorial disputes since the 80s, running down from the PRC liberating Tibet. In the FP article, they even quote a Tibetan exile slaver who refuses to comment on whether Tibet has a right to the lands in question even though he says China does not. The point of these articles is to create a unfalsifiable sense of truth. If there are ten articles, all saying more or less the same thing, from different sources, across months or years, then they must be on to something. It hardly matters if it’s the same three claims from the same source, repackaged over and over.

It looks like China is building up in two valleys or villages in the hopes of switching them for the ones they actually want. i do not know what areas, specifically, they want or why they want them. Taking over an important valley and giving it infrastructure improvements in hopes of a swap seems to reflect a rational negotiating strategy. Any and all mention of fortifying the border with India or provoking India is journalistic malpractice if they do not mention that this is the border where members of the Chinese and Indian army cannot have guns, and beat each other with pole arms. This region is rough terrain, to put it mildly, so there is no risk of an army from either side sneaking in via a handful of extra runways and helicopter pads. If China was actually the devil, they would take the land they wanted by force of arms or they would offer some BRI project or debt relief plan that Bhutan couldn’t refuse

i blame you, personally, for this loss. Fucking Miami sleeper agents in my news thread

Even if it turns out that Mr. Ghaani has been killed, this article is mere Western speculation. The mention of Iranian media does not erase the original source: the New York Times. Many others have posted these rules, but they bear repeating. Most especially:

Never spread the occupation’s propaganda, and do not contribute to instilling a sense of defeat

i mean no disrespect, comrade, but you can see how this could be bait to reveal information about Ghaani, right? Or bait to demoralize parts of the Resistance, or to provide cope for zionists. If the general is dead, Iran will tell us so in a matter of time. i do not personally think it is reasonable, at least outside of the PR-based warfare of the West, to provide photos of your general while they are presumably planning and coordinating in the field as Lebanon is invaded

https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-u-s-navys-missile-production-problem-looks-dire/

An article from the Burger Eagle Freedom Center American Enterprise Institute from a few months ago about the Imperial Navy’s missile production. The two USA ships that attempted to intercept Iranian missiles on Monday launched 12 missiles between them. The 2025 military budget, and allocations for the next five years, will produce 12 SM-Block IIA missiles annually. While about a hundred of another missile type has been ordered, this is apparently 10% of the number ordered in 1985. This year, the White House has passed several budget cuts for USA Navy missile production. Point and laugh.

https://archive.is/cGiyS

Warning for Haaretz, but it’s the absolute other end of perspective on “20 F-35s destroyed”. And they give satellite imagery of the Nevatim base after Monday. The cope about missile interception might be entertaining for some. While the destruction of 20 F-35s is probably exaggerated, the F-35 has something like a 30% mission capability rate. So while the warning from Iran likely let them get some of their F-35s in the air, at most a third of them were actually capable of missions. Now i am not a plane person, but i believe a plane that isn’t fully mission capable can still be flight capable. So if we very generously flip that ratio and say only 30% of F-35s could not fly, there were at least 6 planes grounded when the missiles hit. The red circles in this top image are a bit strange to me, because the entire top row of cubbies (?) is covered in what look like blast marks to me. It’s possible only one plane has been destroyed, but individual F-35s fail all the time. Maybe “israel” has too much invested in its reputation to come up with a training accident story, but it seems likely several were damaged if not destroyed.

it’s mostly just the deranged fascist demons. Russia also recently announced a draft of official changes to their nuclear policy, but apparently they have that meeting annually. Ukraine has been kinda sorta pushing for nuclear war for a while, but that’s just because they want to keep escalating and they are otherwise facing a wall. the USA and UK has been saying no to deep strikes, and hopefully they keep doing that.

my biggest doomer take is based on the paper talking about the climate effects of nuclear war. i believe a (relatively) low yield strike in either the Middle East or between Pakistan and India is hypothesized to decrease global temperatures by over a degree and didn’t threaten agriculture enough that politicians or rich people would feel it. the USA is internally incoherent at its best, so i’m confident there’s at least one person in the government who thinks this way. no clue how close they are to the button, though

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/09/an-american-coup.html

An article from a few weeks ago about the Pentagon allegedly putting their foot down over the President. i agree with Yves that this does not count as a coup. The current zionist escalations can be seen as either taking advantage of the lack of leadership or driving hard to get the Pentagon in the war. i can imagine General John Quartermaster looking at USamerican arms supply, production, and recruitment rates and saying, “We cannot do all of that shit, please stop.” i also know that liberalism can easily detach itself from negative numbers. The CIA (and the gang, i don’t have a better umbrella term) has operated as an independent arm of military and foreign policy since its inception. Additionally, the professionalism and competence of the federal bureaucracy, already a joke on account of the career path into lobbying, has been seriously upended by waves of inter-liberal partisan purges. i believe the Biden administration made it past the first year with hundreds of positions not filled across the government, including ambassadors and assistant secretaries of state. The military, intelligence, and state departments are pulling three different ways. i believe the role of the President is to wrangle and command the different branches of the federal government. Intellectually, many liberals declared victory in ‘91, which led to complacency. “We’re America, who cares about diplomatic decorum or procedure, let’s start a 30 year long invasion of Iraq.” Complacency has led to an empire running on fumes, and now that our alleged drivers can hear the engine sputtering, they assume they have all the diplomatic power in the world. i’d like to say they are wrong, but i have no words or explanations for the gullibility of the President of Iran.

https://www.eastisread.com/p/zheng-yongnian-asia-pacific-destined

A translation of an interesting article about why and how Asia is shaping to be a theatre of global conflict. The comparison between the rapid economic growth and militarism in Europe in the 30 years before 1914 and the last 30 years in Asia is particularly fascinating to me. i don’t know how anyone can say “China is the main enabler of Russia’s war aggression against Ukraine,” with a straight face, let alone the Secretary General of NATO. The West can issue out a constant stream of actions and threats to froth up the water, but certainly it will be the mendacious and dangerous Other who starts this conflict. In terms of nationalist tensions, i believe the South Koreans dropped all complaints about Japanese actions in World War Two in order to start military drilling and training together. That is nothing other than provocation towards the Chinese and Korean people. How to respond to these changes is an imminent and serious question.

https://archive.ph/20240823141136/https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adl6547 (i’m sorry that my archive link doesn’t come with graphs, but you really just need to see the abstract and then i’ll copy down the policies that achieved success.)

A Science article about which policies in the last twenty years have actually led to emissions reductions. Broadly, in the studied countries, most actual reductions in emissions occur when two or more policy or enforcement mechanisms overlap. Successful policies include carbon price floors, phasing out coal, requiring renewables in a portfolio, stricter air pollution standards, and “strengthening financing mechanisms for energy efficiency investments” (it’s one of those articles). Labeling standards, reducing fossil fuel subsidies, building code reforms, and energy efficiency mandates all only work to reduce emissions when combined with other policies. The standalone policies pretty much double in effectiveness when used in a package. In developed countries, the most effective type of reform is pricing. In developing countries, the most effective type of reform is regulation. The paper cautions that all of these are only effective when pricing, regulation, information, and subsidy reforms are used together. i don’t know how exactly those categories are defined. Now, to translate that, climate change reform is good, and it has the most effect on emissions when we do a lot of it. Doing a lot of it entails multiple kinds of climate reform in multiple countries and multiple industries within a country. The policies that are enacted and that people are asking for work, they just aren’t being implemented enough. Now there’s a Science article that confirms what most of us would probably call common sense.

Hello, comrades. Like many of you, i do not live in SWANA and am saddened by the death of Hassan Nasrallah. i do not have any primary sources to add, but i do think there is at least one early operational lesson to be drawn from the facts we do have.

We know that a block of Beirut was destroyed by a number of missiles and bunker busters. Several hundreds if not over a thousand innocent people were killed and injured. But what is a bunker buster? In short, it is a bomb with a very thick shell (and so they are often very heavy relative to the payload size) and a remote delay or altitude based fuse. The ideal is that it smacks into the ground, keeps going forward for a certain depth or time, and then it goes off. And what kind of bombs are the USA and its lapdog using in their depraved spiral of carnage?

First, the GBU-28. Designed and produced first in 1991, there is actual technical information available. I have a deeply biased source, which gets a little too cutesy with the story of USamerican ingenuity. The relevant information here is “penetrated 22 ft of reinforced concrete and then kept flying for half a mile [of air]”. This bomb has a warhead containing roughly 675 kilograms of explosives. It’s also worth thinking about the fact that this bunker buster was designed with Iran, Iraq, Libya, and the DPRK explicitly in mind.

Next, consider Al-Jazeera reports of 5000 pound bombs and also this article from three years ago. The GBU-72, released in 2022, was designed with advice from IDF experiences with the 28. This is a JDAM conversion, which is the US military term for how the Russians are slapping basic guidance kits and two wings on surplus ordinance to create modern precision weapons on the cheap. So it has a larger warhead (though we don’t know how much) and it’s more accurate. Accuracy should mean hitting the street or ground in order to not waste the penetrating power, but who knows with the zionist entity. It’s worth noting that these are technically laser guided munitions. But how do you think the West determines where to put the laser if not via satellite imagery? And if they are figuring out a location from satellite imagery, what would they use if not GPS, which was put into space for this purpose?

Now we can talk all day about tunnel design and where we should be meeting with important diplomats. But the big point here is that JDAM, and all other dumb bombs with smart targeting, are wholly reliant on GPS. there are no USamerican bunker busters (that i can find info on) that do not use GPS. i, with all my authority as an armchair analyst, think that the Axis of Resistance needs to start working on spoofing and hardening devices against GPS (i am certain they already have). Spoofing refers to setting up a transmitter to feed a false stream of data into the environment, which makes it an obvious target but also creates a sort of bubble protection. Hardening can mean several things, but in this case i mean double checking communication devices for tracking bands (many chips can be built to only transmit at certain frequencies), reducing all GPS interaction in the area, and literally covering the walls of certain areas with aluminum foil if it comes down to it. i say reduce because i don’t know if you can stop all civilians in the area from using map software. If anyone wants to scream from the rooftops about Iran, don’t say you want them to launch anything. Iran needs to deploy every piece of electronic warfare it has, at home and in Lebanon, and then it needs to put in an order for twice as many more from China and Russia.

https://gordonhahn.com/2024/09/22/a-river-runs-through-the-end-of-the-nato-russia-ukrainian-war/

An article discussing the future significance of the Dnieper as a defensive line in the SMO. The naked capitalism discussion linked is a good one, about how much of Ukraine is flat and so its water systems are based on pumps and dams. This means that to achieve one of its war aims (fresh water access to Crimea), Russia will need to ensure Kiev does not dump raw sewage upstream. The least desirable option there is having Ukraine (or whatever) control Kiev, and Russia has to rebuild infrastructure. Actually taking Kiev is its own can of worms. The most effective and somewhat heartless option is the Russians continue to focus on power infrastructure. This is necessary for heating and water, especially as we enter northern hemisphere Autumn. Without power, the population density that can be supported is very low. This will cause refugee flows west, but i have also seen estimates that Ukraine has already lost half of its pre-war population. War is tragic.

https://splash247.com/91-hours-left-to-avert-supply-chain-mayhem-in-the-us/

An article about an imminent (October 1st) strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association. This sounds really cool, and the US Chamber of Commerce seems very concerned. Keep in mind the ILA has pledged that cruise ships and military deliveries will not be affected by the strike. If this does happen, expect oil and gas to go nuts. The biggest hubs for oil and gas are on the Gulf Coast, and the majority of Liquid Natural Gas terminals and capacity are also there. If the US cannot export natural gas to Europe, then the EU might be forced to reach the negotiating table before NATO (more realistically they further set their economies on fire voluntarily).

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/chinese-and-russian-firms-among-first-foreign-investors-indonesias-new-capital-nusantara-building-projects-4639486

An article about BRICS+ investment in the construction of Nusantara. For those unaware, Indonesia has been looking to replace Jakarta as the capital for decades, and the plan has been moving forward now that part of the city is below sea level. In theory, this will be an opportunity to correct for the poor sanitation, overcrowding, bad traffic, lack of green spaces, flooding, and depleted ground water of the much older and organically developed Jakarta. The new capital is being built on the east coast of Borneo. Hopefully, basic infrastructure gets more money than hotels and luxury secondary schools, though i do understand that the latter things make for better news articles.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/explainers/israel-war-lebanon-what-arms-hezbollah-have

A detail-light breakdown of the main equipment being used right now (drones, rockets, short and medium range missiles, and ballistic missiles). When thinking about the ranges, keep in mind the current depth Hezbollah seems to be attacking is roughly up to 80 km from the border, and “israeli” censorship begins at Haifa, roughly 80 km from the border. This depth is Hezbollah’s escalation ladder. Incredibly, they also seem to have found a Western military professor with eyes, who comments “…the Hezbollah threat [is] one that Israel cannot destroy militarily.”

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/three-carriers-simultaneously-china

A description of PLAN deployments in its own waters. The ocean surface isn’t the only thing getting hotter in the East Pacific. For those who don’t like ship details, it’s worth noting that Kuznetsov class carriers are really missile cruisers with a flight deck. The titular Russian vessel has anti-air, anti-missile, and anti-submarine defenses as well as 12 anti-ship cruise missiles and 24 8-missile Kinzhal batteries. The USamerican Nimitz class super carrier (which admittedly has a larger flight deck) has anti-air and anti-missile batteries, and no offensive armaments. Presumably, the Chinese have their own missile systems. There is one US carrier group asea in the Pacific, and i think it’s leaving through the Straits of Malacca. Always a good time to drill and train your ships when the enemy isn’t there.

https://www.labornotes.org/2024/09/strike-threat-wins-boarding-and-retro-pay-american-airlines

A little positive news about successful labor action. Every time i’ve been to LAX since 2021 or so, there has been a billboard about labor action on Howard Hughes (the main drag that we must sit in traffic before entering the airport where we sit in traffic). Covid kind of ravaged them, but there seems to be more and more airline related labor action. While the pilots, flight attendants, and transit workers are not necessarily radical unions, every win for labor lets the snowball roll forward. The reputation shift of unions is not because of messaging, it’s because of results. Good to get in the last hits before Trump or Harris guts the NLRB (which is doing pretty good under this admin, exceptionally critical support with an eye to past betrayals).

after initially thinking that this seemed like a good idea, isn’t the point of a megathread to contain a bunch of people talking about one topic? if and when we experience “100 comment hours” or “1000 comment days”, we are all on the same page, and sharing/ commiserating/ celebrating/ insulting the current moment. i think encouraging substantive main comments is good, but we don’t need strict rules