Slicing up Ukraine wasn't what Russia asked for, it's a step they took in response to escalating pressure when non-alignment/security guarantees/ literally any negotiation at all proved to be impossible to achieve diplomatically. History didn't start in 2022. The US could and should have kept its commitments or taken one of the multiple offers to negotiate a deescalation between 1991 and 2022. We don't have to act as if the choice was a binary between appeasement and war, there were many many options that could have been pursued over the course of decades. The US didn't have to continue to expand NATO, they could have let Russia join when they asked, they had options.
The people who lived in Ukraine have had a variety of opinions about that question actually, it's part of the context of the conflict as I'm sure you know. Obviously they would have rather the USSR continued to exist as they made overwhelmingly clear when the question was put to them in a referendum, but that was not to be. But public opinion varies from place to place and over time in Ukraine. The entire reason the eastern section of Ukraine is the subject of conflict now is that Russia could plausibly say that there were Russian speakers and sympathizers who made up a significant portion of the population there, and the separatist regions separated over the question of aligning with the west and against Russia. So it's not a simple 'they did' or 'they didn't' want to align with one side or another, they were caught in the middle and weren't sure what they wanted for a significant part of this.
But to answer your question directly, yes, if US foreign policy cared about the lives of people in Ukraine they should have made it clear they would not admit Ukraine into NATO. A sane foreign policy analyst would have been able to see that was a provocation and reasoned that doing so put the lives of Ukrainians at risk, because it would risk escalation.
But you missed something I said before, I think: If the US was interested in peace and in deescalation they could have admitted Russia into NATO when they asked to join after the USSR folded. It wasn't even just Putin, Gorbachev and Yeltsin both made it clear that they were interested, hell even Molotov asked in the 50s. Then they could have had their cake and eaten it too, Russia's security concerns could have been totally assuaged if it was made clear to them that the alliance didn't still exist specifically to posture against them.
I guess it's a chicken and egg with Russia militarizing and nato, but it seems awfully trusting to dismantle the nato security apparatus against Russia in exchange for a pinky promise of peace.
But you have to see, then, that the US wasn't interested in deescalation. Peaceful options abounded, they won the cold war, their defeated enemy was literally asking to be admitted into an alliance and move forward as collaborators and they didn't take the offer.
They said they would stop expanding NATO towards Russia and then did so anyway.
There's only one realistic interpretation of that approach if you are Russia. You'd need to respond because the enemy you just lost to is making it obvious they aren't finished with you yet.
So then we're back full circle, where I say it's obviously not a moral question because these are states making calculations about their interests, and that history didn't start in 2022 and that deescalation was an option before this happened. Escalating was a policy decision that the US made. That's not Russian apologia, that's the history and context we went over in a good faith dialogue with each other. Ukraine is suffering because of US policy decisions. This doesn't justify an invasion, it doesn't make Putin a good guy, but the conflict was avoidable and the US decided to risk it.
If you recall, this entire chain is challenging the idea that the war is because of 'Russian aggression.' Would it be fair to say we have demonstrated that it's more nuanced than that?
I guess it's a chicken and egg with Russia militarizing and nato
Not a "chicken and egg problem" at all. NATO was created in 1949. Warsaw pact was created in 1955. USSR tried to join NATO in 1954. USSR made their own military pact only after getting rejected NATO membership, and seeing that West Germany was allowed in only 10 years after the holocaust. If NATO was willing to let "former" nazis like Adolf Heusinger into positions of power within NATO, while rejecting the USSR's overtures at joining, then it was obvious that NATO all along was not really interested in allowing socialist countries into collective security. Because NATO was always about bourgeois security against socialism, which the USSR was the face of.
Nuclear escalation wasn't a "chicken and egg problem" either. USA developed nuclear weapons first.
I like how you speak for Ukrainians on this matter. Ukraine as a whole did not want to "move more westward." There were strong separatists movements in the Russian-speaking parts of the country for many reasons (some obvious, some not). In fact, it was these separatist regions that voted heavily for Zelensky, and saw him as a peaceful alternative to Poroshenko (the US-backed right wing leader who took power after Euromaidan oversaw the beginning of the civil war in Ukraine). Which regions want to move westward? The westmost regions. Mostly Lviv. The part of Ukraine that was historically part of Poland, and has a lot of neo nazis and monuments to ultranationalists and WW2 nazi collaborators like Yaroslav Stetsko and Stepan Bandera. That's the most conservative and fascist leaning part of the country, and it's the part of the country that historically has received the most political support from US/NATO/EU, and of course, before that, Nazi Germany. The fascist territorial defense units like Azov come from there. The fascist gangs like C14 come from there. The anti-LGBT, antisemitic and anti-Muslim and anti-Roma sentiment largely (but not entirely) come from there. The discrimination against Russian-speaking Ukrainians come from there. This is the part of the country that most strongly resisted Zelensky's attempts at de-escalation, and they're also the part of the country most allied with the west. And they're the most destabilized and reactionary and capitalist and fascistic part of the country, that has been egging on NATO membership. They even contributed troops and mercenaries to the US-led NATO coalition that invaded Iraq.
Slicing up Ukraine wasn't what Russia asked for, it's a step they took in response to escalating pressure when non-alignment/security guarantees/ literally any negotiation at all proved to be impossible to achieve diplomatically. History didn't start in 2022. The US could and should have kept its commitments or taken one of the multiple offers to negotiate a deescalation between 1991 and 2022. We don't have to act as if the choice was a binary between appeasement and war, there were many many options that could have been pursued over the course of decades. The US didn't have to continue to expand NATO, they could have let Russia join when they asked, they had options.
Does Ukraine's opinion matter in all this? Ukraine has wanted to move more westward. Should the US have prevented that for Russia?
The people who lived in Ukraine have had a variety of opinions about that question actually, it's part of the context of the conflict as I'm sure you know. Obviously they would have rather the USSR continued to exist as they made overwhelmingly clear when the question was put to them in a referendum, but that was not to be. But public opinion varies from place to place and over time in Ukraine. The entire reason the eastern section of Ukraine is the subject of conflict now is that Russia could plausibly say that there were Russian speakers and sympathizers who made up a significant portion of the population there, and the separatist regions separated over the question of aligning with the west and against Russia. So it's not a simple 'they did' or 'they didn't' want to align with one side or another, they were caught in the middle and weren't sure what they wanted for a significant part of this.
But to answer your question directly, yes, if US foreign policy cared about the lives of people in Ukraine they should have made it clear they would not admit Ukraine into NATO. A sane foreign policy analyst would have been able to see that was a provocation and reasoned that doing so put the lives of Ukrainians at risk, because it would risk escalation.
But you missed something I said before, I think: If the US was interested in peace and in deescalation they could have admitted Russia into NATO when they asked to join after the USSR folded. It wasn't even just Putin, Gorbachev and Yeltsin both made it clear that they were interested, hell even Molotov asked in the 50s. Then they could have had their cake and eaten it too, Russia's security concerns could have been totally assuaged if it was made clear to them that the alliance didn't still exist specifically to posture against them.
I guess it's a chicken and egg with Russia militarizing and nato, but it seems awfully trusting to dismantle the nato security apparatus against Russia in exchange for a pinky promise of peace.
But you have to see, then, that the US wasn't interested in deescalation. Peaceful options abounded, they won the cold war, their defeated enemy was literally asking to be admitted into an alliance and move forward as collaborators and they didn't take the offer.
They said they would stop expanding NATO towards Russia and then did so anyway.
There's only one realistic interpretation of that approach if you are Russia. You'd need to respond because the enemy you just lost to is making it obvious they aren't finished with you yet.
So then we're back full circle, where I say it's obviously not a moral question because these are states making calculations about their interests, and that history didn't start in 2022 and that deescalation was an option before this happened. Escalating was a policy decision that the US made. That's not Russian apologia, that's the history and context we went over in a good faith dialogue with each other. Ukraine is suffering because of US policy decisions. This doesn't justify an invasion, it doesn't make Putin a good guy, but the conflict was avoidable and the US decided to risk it.
If you recall, this entire chain is challenging the idea that the war is because of 'Russian aggression.' Would it be fair to say we have demonstrated that it's more nuanced than that?
NATO literally came first though lol
Not a "chicken and egg problem" at all. NATO was created in 1949. Warsaw pact was created in 1955. USSR tried to join NATO in 1954. USSR made their own military pact only after getting rejected NATO membership, and seeing that West Germany was allowed in only 10 years after the holocaust. If NATO was willing to let "former" nazis like Adolf Heusinger into positions of power within NATO, while rejecting the USSR's overtures at joining, then it was obvious that NATO all along was not really interested in allowing socialist countries into collective security. Because NATO was always about bourgeois security against socialism, which the USSR was the face of.
Nuclear escalation wasn't a "chicken and egg problem" either. USA developed nuclear weapons first.
I like how you speak for Ukrainians on this matter. Ukraine as a whole did not want to "move more westward." There were strong separatists movements in the Russian-speaking parts of the country for many reasons (some obvious, some not). In fact, it was these separatist regions that voted heavily for Zelensky, and saw him as a peaceful alternative to Poroshenko (the US-backed right wing leader who took power after Euromaidan oversaw the beginning of the civil war in Ukraine). Which regions want to move westward? The westmost regions. Mostly Lviv. The part of Ukraine that was historically part of Poland, and has a lot of neo nazis and monuments to ultranationalists and WW2 nazi collaborators like Yaroslav Stetsko and Stepan Bandera. That's the most conservative and fascist leaning part of the country, and it's the part of the country that historically has received the most political support from US/NATO/EU, and of course, before that, Nazi Germany. The fascist territorial defense units like Azov come from there. The fascist gangs like C14 come from there. The anti-LGBT, antisemitic and anti-Muslim and anti-Roma sentiment largely (but not entirely) come from there. The discrimination against Russian-speaking Ukrainians come from there. This is the part of the country that most strongly resisted Zelensky's attempts at de-escalation, and they're also the part of the country most allied with the west. And they're the most destabilized and reactionary and capitalist and fascistic part of the country, that has been egging on NATO membership. They even contributed troops and mercenaries to the US-led NATO coalition that invaded Iraq.