There's a ton of information coming out from a bunch of different sources and it's difficult to keep track of who's said what and who has evidence of what. This thread is to keep track of who's making what claims, who has what evidence, and discussion surrounding those.
For top-level comments, please separate into two categories:
Evidence (videos, facts, circumstantial evidence, etc.) that we can validate, invalidate, or provide supporting sources for
Claims (IDF, Hamas, Western media, etc.) that we can prove or disprove using current evidence
=== 2023-10-19 ===
It's established fact that Israel was operating aircraft near the hospital, that Israel was striking targets near the hospital, that Israel had indicated that they would strike the hospital, that Israel had striked the hospital in the past, and that Israel had targeted multiple hospital staff in the days leading up to the strike.
It's currently up to debate, but many indications suggest that Israel's message has changed multiple times. The initial claim was that the attack was on Hamas operatives within the hospital. The claim afterward was that this was a Hamas misfire (using demonstrably falsified audio evidence).
The videos show that a single large explosion triggered whatever happened, not a sequence of smaller explosions or secondary detonations. The video circulating of a Hamas rocket "misfire" is more indicative of a MANPADS launch given multiple comparable flight paths from other MANPADS. It's a clear usage of a multi-pulse rocket motor, something Hamas does not have domestic capability for but does have access to through Iranian MANPADS. An Iranian Misagh-2 fires a missile with less than 2kg of explosives and less than 20kg of total weight.
At this stage, my most likely conclusion is that the damage was the result of an airburst bomb.
Final edit: I do not think these two videos depict the same event. Still weird how such similar events happened exactly an hour apart.
https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/17anen6/another_angle_of_the_hospital_explosion/ Timestamp: 19:59
https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/17an67c/video_by_israels_channel_12_showing_the_moment_of/ 18:59
Plus: The videos the IDF posted as proof: unsure of source: https://nitter.net/IDF/status/1714403025136017784 & AJ Arabic: https://nitter.net/IDF/status/1714442617201586220 show the time as 18:59.
Both videos claim to depict the same event. The first seems to strengthen the case it was not a misfired rocket, the second seems to strengthen the case it was a misfired rocket, due to where the rockets are fired in relation to the blast.
The 18:59 timestamped video does not show the single rocket(?) depicted in the two videos the IDF posted, or in the 18:59 static shot. Maybe its too low quality to be seen, but odd nonetheless. The IDF videos seem to claim that this single rocket was the misfire, but the Israeli tv show seems to claim it was one of the rockets from the salvo.
I'm honestly losing my mind here. The difference in time between the two blasts leads me to think that the 18:59 video from Israeli TV and AJ Arabic are the correct ones, and the 19:59 timestamped video is depicting another event, but what the fuck are the chances that two rocket salvos happened EXACTLY an hour apart, and an explosion on the ground takes place EXACTLY an hour apart.
edit: I removed this, but I'm adding it back. Were there two cameras? One with its time incorrect? The timestamps are similar, but there are characteristics of the videos which differ. One has a light flare and lots of bugs flying in front, and more information on the bright area by the road. One has no light flare or bugs, and less information on the road.
Something which contradicts this would the the lights on in the windows on the building. In one, there is a light on on the building to the right which isnt in the other, and the timing between blasts. So I am leaning to the same camera an hour apart.
edit 2: AJ says it happened at approx 7:30pm ("At least 500 people were killed in an explosion at al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City at around 7.30pm on Tuesday"), which doesn't correspond to either timestamp.
The light could maybe be explained by the difference in exposure. The TV clip seems a bit too dim to make out the rockets, but the other one is kinda bright. The buildings are pretty bright and that small sliver of light from that window might not make it out properly. I would really like to know what's up with this camera or these cameras. Maybe this is the spot for journalists to put up unattended 24h livestream cameras, the terrible quality and the timestamp would suggest that. If there's a person there though, it could explain how the picture changed in an hour. Maybe someone came by and fixed it in the meantime, like they only check on this camera every so often or they were out for a coffee or something. Would be really important to find the source of that other video.
Someone who knows how to do video editing should try to line up the pattern of the rocket launches. If they match exactly that's pretty much proof one of the videos was doctored.
The 19:59 video is definitely not the same one as the 18:59 and the explosion that happens in that video is not in the same location as the 18:59 video.
Yeah, I've come to the same conclusion. It is weird how such similar events happened exactly an hour apart.
Do the videos from the ground suggest that either one is true?
The only video from the ground that I assume is true is the one shot through the gate: https://nitter.net/washingtonpost/status/1714406243652272340, and its too short and dark to see/hear anything else. I cannot hear a second blast within two seconds, which I am leaning towards as the correct sequence. The 19:59 timestamped video does not appear to have this second blast, so I am leaning towards it being a different event. Very odd how similar the times are though.
I think I agree. The AJ Arabic video has an explosion at 0:16 and another one at 0:19 (presumably at the hospital), which would mean that this video caught the 0:19 explosion (maybe triggered to record by the 0:16 explosion?)
This video ends before confirmation that the following strike from the 19:59 video didn't occur.
Yeah, the static 19:59 video doesn't show the second blast 2-3 seconds after the first like the AJ Arabic video does (but maybe it was obscured?), but it does show a second blast 12 seconds later. I wish the AJ Arabic video was continuous, because if it too showed another blast about 12 seconds after the first, it could be the same one.
What is quite odd though, is the difference between what the IDF videos are claiming and what the Israeli TV video is claiming, which I added after you commented:
I'm very skeptical on the misfire argument simply because the sheer number of strikes in the AJ Arabic video would suggest that Hamas was shelling Gaza
Oh I am as well. The proof provided in these videos is inconclusive and appear to point to different claimed misfires.
Looking at the explosion itself (through the metal gate), it looks like a rather large munition. I'm not convinced it's caused by gasoline because I'm fairly sure a similarly sized gasoline explosion would need much more gas than fits in a few sedans.
For example, a jerry can (20L) "explosion" : https://youtu.be/jc3BIdbwGuE?si=2ukHqRUMTC_J9DqC
And a jerry can bonfire: https://youtu.be/eS4VDyE_PWs?si=KzOZMof2J9AHgUEO
Not even close to the same scale.
mhm a gas fire/explosion doesn't seem to check out. But the claim seems to be less that cans of gas, or even a gas generator, exploded, but that unspent fuel from the rocket exploded.
If so, unspent fuel from the rocket looks like it had a larger explosive potential than the rocket itself. Maybe that's fair? I'm not exactly a munitions expert.
I'm not either, so I can't really speculate either way