There's a ton of information coming out from a bunch of different sources and it's difficult to keep track of who's said what and who has evidence of what. This thread is to keep track of who's making what claims, who has what evidence, and discussion surrounding those.
For top-level comments, please separate into two categories:
Evidence (videos, facts, circumstantial evidence, etc.) that we can validate, invalidate, or provide supporting sources for
Claims (IDF, Hamas, Western media, etc.) that we can prove or disprove using current evidence
=== 2023-10-19 ===
It's established fact that Israel was operating aircraft near the hospital, that Israel was striking targets near the hospital, that Israel had indicated that they would strike the hospital, that Israel had striked the hospital in the past, and that Israel had targeted multiple hospital staff in the days leading up to the strike.
It's currently up to debate, but many indications suggest that Israel's message has changed multiple times. The initial claim was that the attack was on Hamas operatives within the hospital. The claim afterward was that this was a Hamas misfire (using demonstrably falsified audio evidence).
The videos show that a single large explosion triggered whatever happened, not a sequence of smaller explosions or secondary detonations. The video circulating of a Hamas rocket "misfire" is more indicative of a MANPADS launch given multiple comparable flight paths from other MANPADS. It's a clear usage of a multi-pulse rocket motor, something Hamas does not have domestic capability for but does have access to through Iranian MANPADS. An Iranian Misagh-2 fires a missile with less than 2kg of explosives and less than 20kg of total weight.
At this stage, my most likely conclusion is that the damage was the result of an airburst bomb.
https://nitter.net/Ted55643099/status/1714538028604019116#m
Extended video shows more ground strkes while the hospital burns.
IDF were clearly conducting strikes in the area.
Rewatching the video, I'm fairly convinced it's the same munition used for most of the ground strikes. The hospital seemed to catch aflame afterwards (lending credence to the theory that the cars had gasoline which ignited) but the initial flash is pretty unmistakable.
If anyone's feeling up to it, I'm fairly sure you could compare the relative exposures in the explosions. You'd have to correct for distance, distortion, etc. but usually live cameras don't autocorrect exposure or fps so you have a pretty good baseline reading.
Nah you can't, they'll be bright enough to saturate the sensor.
At the point of impact, not at a distance away from it. Light is a function of distance from the origin... Right?
Yes, it is, but until the fireball is smaller than a pixel, you will see a reduction in the number of pixels illuminated, and then a reduction in exposure. And I'd wager that for a sizeable bomb it will take a while for that reduction in exposure to mean you stop clipping the sensor, especially at night with the ISO dialed up.
You can also see smoke plumes in the background near the hospital before the hospital is struck, and more of them start rising from the continued strikes.
The prior detonation at 0:16 seems to be of the same munition as that used on the hospital at 0:19. Can anyone confirm?
Episcopal Church in Jerusalem
https://twitter.com/QudsNen/status/1714651877562884390?t=OcSiZaWzVSrgwDRP3ZTyDA&s=19
The Episcopal Church in Jerusalem has announced that it received 3 phone warnings from Israel that they would strike the Baptist Hospital before they did it.
This has also been reported by French magazine LeMonde (paywall)
Does the article actually say that? I read through it and they said that the hospital had been bombed before on the 14th, and that those constituted as a warning.
Unless they're different warning calls. This definitely says that the Israeli army called the hospital director saying the previous hits were warnings and to evacuate it before they hit it again.
The Al Ahli Arab Hospital had already been damaged by an Israeli bombing on October 14; four staff members were wounded, reported Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby on behalf of the Anglican Church, to which the Episcopalian Church of Jerusalem is attached. The next day, the Israeli army had called the hospital's director to tell him that these two shots were warnings to evacuate, local Ministry of Health undersecretary Yousef Abu Al-Rish reported at a press conference on Tuesday evening, surrounded by the bodies of victims. In 11 days, 16 health workers have been killed in the course of their work in the Gaza Strip, according to the World Health Organization. Four hospitals are out of service.
Alex Thomson - Channel 4 News (UK)
https://twitter.com/alextomo/status/1714670858914894046?t=ZCWKABr67eeeYyp9zuiA5Q&s=19
Several experts confirm Hamas’ view to @Channel4News that the audio tape of “Hamas” operatives talking about the missile malfunction is a fake . They say the tone, syntax, accent and idiom are absurd.
Israel's own conflicting claims on the origin what hit the hospital, from Alex Thompson (Channel 4 News) :
Israel’s presentation has a Rear Admiral and the tape saying the malfunctioning missile fired from cemetery next to hospital. That doesn’t match video of the event.
Israel’s info graphic has the firing site 5kms SW of the hospital - it cannot be there and the next door cemetery , can it?
These facts were presented simultaneously by the same Israeli Rear Admiral. Saying one thing (cemetery) and holding a infographic board that shows the other (5km).
Claim by Hananya Naftali (Digital Aide of Netanyahu, Israeli influencer):
Israel struck the hospital as it was being used as a Hamas base.
Follow-up claim by the same guy:
Actually he was just repeating a Reuters story (which doesn't claim that) and assumed. It was actually Hamas.
Source: Al Jazeera & the guy's own Twitter account.
Final edit: I do not think the two competing videos depict the same event. Still weird how such similar events happened exactly an hour apart. This means that the sequence of events I outlined are a mishmash of two separate things. I don't think the video showing the "flares" is from the hospital bombing.
Reposting my comment in the mega. Let me know if you want this broken into parts, but I think the succession of events are important to provide context which is always missing from short clips:
From the videos we have seen it appears that several events happened in quick succession.
- Rocket salvo from Gaza
- Single rocket(?) from Gaza leading to 3
- Rocket intercepted/exploded high in the air (MANPAD shot at a plane? or a misfire/failed rocket?)
- Flares from an aircraft (??)
- Smaller explosion on the ground not at hospital
- Large explosion at the hospital
This video from the IDF released last night (which had been circulating before), shows 2, 3, 5, and 6, and afterwards a rocket salvo which I am not sure is actually 1 due to other footage: https://nitter.net/IDF/status/1714403025136017784, this is a similar video to what was shown on AJ Arabic, though without the ending: https://nitter.net/IDF/status/1714442617201586220
Some said this video was reversed, but I do not see any evidence of that, but I also fail to see how this shows a misfired rocket hitting a hospital. Whatever that single rocket was, exploded far above in the air.
Then there is this video, which shows 1, 4, and 6. Oddly, I do not see the first smaller explosion here, and what happens in the sky is clearly not 3 as clearly depicted in the first video. The idea that it is flares from an aircraft would make sense. Also note how the salvo is heading away from the hospital: https://streamable.com/hchxwx
Now here's a kicker. The video Israel's twitter posted today is from the same location as the above video (see the building at the edge of the frame), but cropped: https://nitter.net/Israel/status/1714593881801601043
Here, the salvo is coming from the other side of the frame, making it look like it is heading towards the hospital. Looking at the two videos together, it appears that one of these videos has been altered. I am leaning towards the second being the altered video as it is heavily cropped and worse quality than the first.
My own suspicion is that Israel knew Gaza would be firing a salvo, and timed/planned a strike so it could plausibly blame Gaza for killing its own civilians. If we look at how this shapes the media narrative, it has directed attention away from the daily bombings of civilians and infrastructure into a debate about who bombed the hospital. It has allowed Israel to claim that it would never strike a hospital, even though they have been doing that all week, and "confirming" that Gaza launches rockets with civilian infrastructure as a shield. This redirects anger back at Hamas and Gaza shoring up support that Israel seemed to be losing in MSM narratives due to, quite frankly, some of the worst and most sustained war crimes that have happened in my lifetime.
Any thoughts?
edit: link to the post and comments as it has been edited and others have added: https://hexbear.net/comment/4121650
Thanks! I think it's fine leaving them in a single comment.
The main thing disproving Israel's claim is that Hamas is clearly firing rockets away from the hospital.
I agree that this is definitely turning attention away from the daily bombings (and the convoy bombings, and the school bombings...) But at this point I'm just trying to figure out what actually happened.
But at this point I'm just trying to figure out what actually happened.
Yeah, same. I think between the IDF video from last night and the competing videos released today, the event is depicted as best it can. Very hard to tell what exactly happened due to how dark it is, and how poor the video quality is.
I just keep repeating ‘this was the 5th hospital struck so far’, and pretty much stop there. The source was (perhaps inadvertently) the NYT showing a graphic map of Gaza with approx locations of Israeli attacks, and a list of targets struck by type. Four hospitals on that list, before this one. I need verifiable physical evidence evaluated by credible independent parties for any claim of responsibility to be taken seriously.
Having a hard time finding it, but I think they've hit more than 5 at this point. It was 15 iirc
Testimony by Ghassan Abu Sitt, MSF doctor working in Gaza who was in al-Ahri Hospital at the time of the attack
https://twitter.com/FSBRG/status/1714609467206095255?t=MIcZcHtl6qzq-xOGd0luNg&s=19
We now know that the number of killed exceeds 500. This number will increase as I saw many dismembered bodies and parts of bodies as I carried my last patient into the ambulance past the courtyard.
Reports from Kirby from the White House.
https://twitter.com/MarquardtA/status/1714467358696190345?t=HisFJia6Z84_wC_02-Bd8A&s=19
Asked if the US was giving Israel the “benefit of the doubt,” Kirby paused a bit, @betsy_klein reports. “I think we certainly recognize that they feel very strongly that this was not caused by them,” Kirby said.
I feel very strongly that the US did not trade arms for hostages and my heart and best intentions tell me that is true
The US is very weak in their backing of the Israeli claim. If they had robust intelligence, the US would have seen it by now.
https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/ali-abunimah/israels-spin-about-hospital-massacre-quickly-comes-apart
Credit to @JamesConeZone:
Will post in the atrocities thread, but I think I've got a decent timeline of the hospital bombing. Please add anything that I've missed here
- Friday, 13th October -- IDF orders evacuation of all northern Gaza and specifically ordered hospitals to evacuate (IDF English statement on twitter | UN response)
- Saturday, 14th October -- Two attacks happen on Saturday. First, The IDF targeted the homes of three staff members, including the medical director, Dr Maher Ayyad (source). Second, the al-Ahli hospital's cancer ward is hit by a missile at 7.30pm, injuring 4 staff members.. I think this was a warning shot.
- Sunday, 15th October -- Thousands of refugees begin to take shelter in hospitals, including Al-Ahli. Hospital officials seem to have been warned several times to evacuate the premises. I don't know enough Arabic to hunt down or confirm these sources but Arab TV quotes an "Evangelical (Protestant?) Church in Jerusalem" saying they were warned to evacuate the hospital three times via phone.
- Monday, 16th October -- More refugees and warnings, I'm assuming. Reports continue to come out about how the hospital is overflowing with patients who have no where to go and that the hospital has no more medicine or supplies to treat them. The Episcopal Diocese of Jerusalem, who run the hospital, declare a day of prayer and fasting for Tuesday, 17th October.
- Tuesday, 17th October -- The IDF strike al-Ahli hospital with a guided missile during the day of prayer and fasting.
As discussion of the facts continue, I really want to again emphasise that the IDF had attacked the hospital already and targeted the homes of the medical director of the hospital. Finally, al-Ahli is one of fifteen hospitals that have been attacked in Gaza since 7th Oct (source).
Video of the parking lot of the Episcopal Church
https://twitter.com/Wyni16/status/1714648894854848599?t=aYWhWiuhuAcBIffea3T-lA&s=19
One car is completely overturned and a number of cars are destroyed. Context is that currently, every litre of fuel is being rationed to power generators. It's unknown, but it's likely that many of these cars have had significant amounts of fuel siphoned.
The fuel situation in the Gaza Strip is critical. The health ministry is desperate to source fuel for the hospitals and has issued alerts requesting anyone with even a litre of fuel to get in touch. A litre of fuel could save lives in Gaza. Al-Shifa Hospital has already been forced to close some of its departments due to lack of fuel for its emergency generators. Other hospitals have informed us that they will be forced to shut down in the coming hours.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/10/17/israel-hamas-war-live-anger-after-israeli-strike-kills-500-in-hospital
Video of the strike - Middle East Monitor
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZPR7qty5o/
This video should be sufficient to do a basic yield estimation, but I'm not experienced enough to do it.
Al Jazeera - CW: injuries and bodies
https://x.com/AJEnglish/status/1714430279157440934?s=20
Geoconfirmed - video of rocket detonating in the air followed by detonation on the ground
https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1714675221750329558?t=bh_UwTDBSvt0dsh1EtsbvA&s=19
The flight path of the rocket is similar to those of MANPADS (initial burn, rapid secondary burn, detonation). Since the rocket hit the termination/detonation phase, there are no more explosives onboard.
The detonation on the ground is a single large flash followed by a cloud of smoke. No secondary detonation can be seen in this video.
Final edit: I do not think these two videos depict the same event. Still weird how such similar events happened exactly an hour apart.
https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/17anen6/another_angle_of_the_hospital_explosion/ Timestamp: 19:59
https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/17an67c/video_by_israels_channel_12_showing_the_moment_of/ 18:59
Plus: The videos the IDF posted as proof: unsure of source: https://nitter.net/IDF/status/1714403025136017784 & AJ Arabic: https://nitter.net/IDF/status/1714442617201586220 show the time as 18:59.
Both videos claim to depict the same event. The first seems to strengthen the case it was not a misfired rocket, the second seems to strengthen the case it was a misfired rocket, due to where the rockets are fired in relation to the blast.
- The timestamps are an hour apart, and the camera (if it was the same one) had been moved slightly between them.
- It is too hard to tell if the pattern of rockets are the same as the 19:59 clip to so low quality
- Both show two explosions, but:
- the 18:59 has about two seconds between blasts. This is not shown in the video from Israeli TV, but is shown in the AJ Arabic video.
- the 19:59 video has about 12 second between blasts according to the timestamp
- Both videos show a salvo of rockets in the air by 18:59:10 & 19:59:10 AND the first blast happening at 18:59:20 & 19:59:20
The 18:59 timestamped video does not show the single rocket(?) depicted in the two videos the IDF posted, or in the 18:59 static shot. Maybe its too low quality to be seen, but odd nonetheless. The IDF videos seem to claim that this single rocket was the misfire, but the Israeli tv show seems to claim it was one of the rockets from the salvo.
I'm honestly losing my mind here. The difference in time between the two blasts leads me to think that the 18:59 video from Israeli TV and AJ Arabic are the correct ones, and the 19:59 timestamped video is depicting another event, but what the fuck are the chances that two rocket salvos happened EXACTLY an hour apart, and an explosion on the ground takes place EXACTLY an hour apart.
edit: I removed this, but I'm adding it back. Were there two cameras? One with its time incorrect? The timestamps are similar, but there are characteristics of the videos which differ. One has a light flare and lots of bugs flying in front, and more information on the bright area by the road. One has no light flare or bugs, and less information on the road.
Something which contradicts this would the the lights on in the windows on the building. In one, there is a light on on the building to the right which isnt in the other, and the timing between blasts. So I am leaning to the same camera an hour apart.
edit 2: AJ says it happened at approx 7:30pm ("At least 500 people were killed in an explosion at al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City at around 7.30pm on Tuesday"), which doesn't correspond to either timestamp.
The light could maybe be explained by the difference in exposure. The TV clip seems a bit too dim to make out the rockets, but the other one is kinda bright. The buildings are pretty bright and that small sliver of light from that window might not make it out properly. I would really like to know what's up with this camera or these cameras. Maybe this is the spot for journalists to put up unattended 24h livestream cameras, the terrible quality and the timestamp would suggest that. If there's a person there though, it could explain how the picture changed in an hour. Maybe someone came by and fixed it in the meantime, like they only check on this camera every so often or they were out for a coffee or something. Would be really important to find the source of that other video.
Someone who knows how to do video editing should try to line up the pattern of the rocket launches. If they match exactly that's pretty much proof one of the videos was doctored.
The only video from the ground that I assume is true is the one shot through the gate: https://nitter.net/washingtonpost/status/1714406243652272340, and its too short and dark to see/hear anything else. I cannot hear a second blast within two seconds, which I am leaning towards as the correct sequence. The 19:59 timestamped video does not appear to have this second blast, so I am leaning towards it being a different event. Very odd how similar the times are though.
I think I agree. The AJ Arabic video has an explosion at 0:16 and another one at 0:19 (presumably at the hospital), which would mean that this video caught the 0:19 explosion (maybe triggered to record by the 0:16 explosion?)
This video ends before confirmation that the following strike from the 19:59 video didn't occur.
Yeah, the static 19:59 video doesn't show the second blast 2-3 seconds after the first like the AJ Arabic video does (but maybe it was obscured?), but it does show a second blast 12 seconds later. I wish the AJ Arabic video was continuous, because if it too showed another blast about 12 seconds after the first, it could be the same one.
What is quite odd though, is the difference between what the IDF videos are claiming and what the Israeli TV video is claiming, which I added after you commented:
The 18:59 timestamped video does not show the single rocket(?) depicted in the two videos the IDF posted, or in the 18:59 static shot. Maybe its too low quality to be seen, but odd nonetheless. The IDF videos seem to claim that this single rocket was the misfire, but the Israeli tv show seems to claim it was one of the rockets from the salvo.
I'm very skeptical on the misfire argument simply because the sheer number of strikes in the AJ Arabic video would suggest that Hamas was shelling Gaza
Oh I am as well. The proof provided in these videos is inconclusive and appear to point to different claimed misfires.
Looking at the explosion itself (through the metal gate), it looks like a rather large munition. I'm not convinced it's caused by gasoline because I'm fairly sure a similarly sized gasoline explosion would need much more gas than fits in a few sedans.
For example, a jerry can (20L) "explosion" : https://youtu.be/jc3BIdbwGuE?si=2ukHqRUMTC_J9DqC
And a jerry can bonfire: https://youtu.be/eS4VDyE_PWs?si=KzOZMof2J9AHgUEO
Not even close to the same scale.
mhm a gas fire/explosion doesn't seem to check out. But the claim seems to be less that cans of gas, or even a gas generator, exploded, but that unspent fuel from the rocket exploded.
If so, unspent fuel from the rocket looks like it had a larger explosive potential than the rocket itself. Maybe that's fair? I'm not exactly a munitions expert.
The 19:59 video is definitely not the same one as the 18:59 and the explosion that happens in that video is not in the same location as the 18:59 video.
Yeah, I've come to the same conclusion. It is weird how such similar events happened exactly an hour apart.
