There's a ton of information coming out from a bunch of different sources and it's difficult to keep track of who's said what and who has evidence of what. This thread is to keep track of who's making what claims, who has what evidence, and discussion surrounding those.

For top-level comments, please separate into two categories:

Evidence (videos, facts, circumstantial evidence, etc.) that we can validate, invalidate, or provide supporting sources for

Claims (IDF, Hamas, Western media, etc.) that we can prove or disprove using current evidence

=== 2023-10-19 ===

It's established fact that Israel was operating aircraft near the hospital, that Israel was striking targets near the hospital, that Israel had indicated that they would strike the hospital, that Israel had striked the hospital in the past, and that Israel had targeted multiple hospital staff in the days leading up to the strike.

It's currently up to debate, but many indications suggest that Israel's message has changed multiple times. The initial claim was that the attack was on Hamas operatives within the hospital. The claim afterward was that this was a Hamas misfire (using demonstrably falsified audio evidence).

The videos show that a single large explosion triggered whatever happened, not a sequence of smaller explosions or secondary detonations. The video circulating of a Hamas rocket "misfire" is more indicative of a MANPADS launch given multiple comparable flight paths from other MANPADS. It's a clear usage of a multi-pulse rocket motor, something Hamas does not have domestic capability for but does have access to through Iranian MANPADS. An Iranian Misagh-2 fires a missile with less than 2kg of explosives and less than 20kg of total weight.

At this stage, my most likely conclusion is that the damage was the result of an airburst bomb.

  • zephyreks [none/use name]
    hexagon
    ·
    1 year ago

    I think I agree. The AJ Arabic video has an explosion at 0:16 and another one at 0:19 (presumably at the hospital), which would mean that this video caught the 0:19 explosion (maybe triggered to record by the 0:16 explosion?)

    This video ends before confirmation that the following strike from the 19:59 video didn't occur.

    • Parsani [love/loves, comrade/them]
      ·
      1 year ago

      Yeah, the static 19:59 video doesn't show the second blast 2-3 seconds after the first like the AJ Arabic video does (but maybe it was obscured?), but it does show a second blast 12 seconds later. I wish the AJ Arabic video was continuous, because if it too showed another blast about 12 seconds after the first, it could be the same one.

      What is quite odd though, is the difference between what the IDF videos are claiming and what the Israeli TV video is claiming, which I added after you commented:

      The 18:59 timestamped video does not show the single rocket(?) depicted in the two videos the IDF posted, or in the 18:59 static shot. Maybe its too low quality to be seen, but odd nonetheless. The IDF videos seem to claim that this single rocket was the misfire, but the Israeli tv show seems to claim it was one of the rockets from the salvo.

      • zephyreks [none/use name]
        hexagon
        ·
        1 year ago

        I'm very skeptical on the misfire argument simply because the sheer number of strikes in the AJ Arabic video would suggest that Hamas was shelling Gaza

      • zephyreks [none/use name]
        hexagon
        ·
        1 year ago

        Looking at the explosion itself (through the metal gate), it looks like a rather large munition. I'm not convinced it's caused by gasoline because I'm fairly sure a similarly sized gasoline explosion would need much more gas than fits in a few sedans.

        For example, a jerry can (20L) "explosion" : https://youtu.be/jc3BIdbwGuE?si=2ukHqRUMTC_J9DqC

        And a jerry can bonfire: https://youtu.be/eS4VDyE_PWs?si=KzOZMof2J9AHgUEO

        Not even close to the same scale.

        • Parsani [love/loves, comrade/them]
          ·
          1 year ago

          mhm a gas fire/explosion doesn't seem to check out. But the claim seems to be less that cans of gas, or even a gas generator, exploded, but that unspent fuel from the rocket exploded.

          • zephyreks [none/use name]
            hexagon
            ·
            1 year ago

            If so, unspent fuel from the rocket looks like it had a larger explosive potential than the rocket itself. Maybe that's fair? I'm not exactly a munitions expert.