The other thing is that the Trump brand is heavily proven Teflon but Biden is the president and a normal politician. By "normal" I mean his support is soft also scandals and failures reflect negatively on him. Americans fairly or unfairly will hold him responsible. Any number of things (or one than one) could utterly destroy his 2024 chances. Israel continuing their war well into 2024 and committing so heinous acts even the libs have to call them war crimes. FEMA fucking up and horribly handling a natural disaster. A large terrorist attack in the US happens. A variant of covid emerges that is vaccine resistant and not only do large numbers of Americans start to die again - masking is needed. Hunter Biden issues start to dog Biden. The potential list is endless. Choose your own adventure.

Meanwhile it's nearly impossible to imagine a real world situation where Trump noticeably drops in the polls. And nobody in American political history has a more rabid and devoted base than Trump.