I'd vote for Eugene V. Debs while he's in prison. It's not disqualifying because I think the crime is as illegitimate as the prison system. Heightening the contradictions challenges the authority of the prison and the government. Some kind of structural change will inevitably come out of him challenging his imprisonment or the presidency being reduced to a vacant office.
There is no scenario in which the office of the presidency stays vacant.
That's where it's a fun crisis. His VP was the sewer socialist mayor of Milwaukee and would have made a great president, but that'd mean they let a proper socialist hold the office. If they ratfuck him to install someone further down the line of succession it's a precedent and a massive radicalising point which shows how farcical bourgeois democracy is. If they release him from prison he's a king, if they don't he's a martyr. All the options hurt the system. Reactionaries have that same set of conditions set up for them with Trump.
Breaking news: The entire US population has perished in a freak accident experts are calling, "probably the best outcome for the world, to be entirely honest with you."
There is one scenario in which the office of the presidency stays vacant.
Trump getting convicted would, in the minds of his supporters, justify viewing him as anti-establishment. His conviction would be seen as a virtue.
Biden is a walking corpse with a palpable stench of failure.
He is betting that amerikkkans will forget about genocide in 8 months, and likely he is right
Yeah but like, what fresh bullshit is coming down the pipe for us in the next 8 months?
If Americans forget about the genocide because of a new war in Venezuela, that's not great for Biden
Say what you will about Biden, the man knows how to materially and politically support a genocide to great success.
The America in your wish: Eugene V Debs wins historic presidential election from prison.
The America in reality: Donald J Trump wins historic presidential election from prison.
No doubt that it's true, but isn't a hypothetical poll like this hella unreliable?
All polling has been proven to be incredibly unreliable whenever Trump is involved.
I think this makes perfect sense. I don’t really see a Trump conviction on its own having much effect either way, simply because I don’t see why someone would base their decision on a legal conviction for these specific issues. Think about the incredible kind of brain that would require.
You’d have to be someone who would vote for Trump today, knowing everything we already know about him, but who would be swayed if a court found him guilty of a crime. That person either sincerely believes in Trump’s innocence, but would change their mind out of trust in the legal system, or someone who doesn’t care if he’s guilty, but I guess doesn’t like the idea of a convicted felon being president. Both of those people are insane.
The only other option is someone who wouldn’t vote for Trump unless he was a convicted felon. That person is also insane, but I would love to get a look at their substack.
Point being, a legal conviction isn’t likely to have much effect on voter sentiment. The same is true of an acquittal for the same reasoning. The results of these court cases won’t have an effect on the election unless it creates some legal circumstance that blocks Trump from running.
Trump has managed to sell the idea of him "being an outsider fighting the establishment" to his supporters. If he is arrested, it doesn't matter what crime he is accused of or how much evidence there is, his supporters will view them as fake charges trying to stop him from his "mission"
I keep trying to tell the libs that yes, the polling does mean Biden is doomed. 1. Trump outperformed polling in both his elections. 2. Biden would need to win by 3-4 points in the popular vote to win the electoral college. So he's even farther behind what he needs to do to win than it looks. He's fucked. I don't think Trump can say or do anything that will fuck this up for him. Biden can definitely lose more of his voters.
The other thing is that the Trump brand is heavily proven Teflon but Biden is the president and a normal politician. By "normal" I mean his support is soft also scandals and failures reflect negatively on him. Americans fairly or unfairly will hold him responsible. Any number of things (or one than one) could utterly destroy his 2024 chances. Israel continuing their war well into 2024 and committing so heinous acts even the libs have to call them war crimes. FEMA fucking up and horribly handling a natural disaster. A large terrorist attack in the US happens. A variant of covid emerges that is vaccine resistant and not only do large numbers of Americans start to die again - masking is needed. Hunter Biden issues start to dog Biden. The potential list is endless. Choose your own adventure.
Meanwhile it's nearly impossible to imagine a real world situation where Trump noticeably drops in the polls. And nobody in American political history has a more rabid and devoted base than Trump.
Don't forget slow breakdown of Ukraine accelerating in a dramatic fashion, if that happens Biden is absolutely toasted. They've gone all in on Ukraine
