Title is a reference to Resistance imagery about how Israeli soldiers will enter Gaza alive but leave it in coffins - the same is true for American soldiers in the Middle East if the regional war expands.
The image is of the Fattah-1 Iranian hypersonic ballistic missile, which its creators boast can overcome any missile defense system on the planet, has a range of 1400 kilometers (and thus Iran can strike Israel), and has a terminal impact velocity of Mach 13.
Dozens of American soldiers have been injured and 3 have been killed on a base in the Middle East. There has been confused reports about whether the attack was on Syrian territory or Jordan's - the Al-Tanf base is in Syria, but Tower-22 in Jordan is another base that helps supply Al-Tanf, and Tower-22 is the one that is alleged to have been hit. These is the first confirmed deaths of American troops since the conflict began, though it's not likely that this is actually the first deaths after hundreds of drone/missile strikes throughout the region on American bases, unless you think American soldiers are having extremely timely heart attacks just after a missile hits.
The attack is certainly impactful, though it does also have considerably symbolism. Courtesy of John Helmer:
The operational success of the strike for the attackers is strategic. Tower-22 is a logistics, supply, and rear guard post for the Al-Tanf base which US troops are operating thirty kilometres north across the border in Syria. The attack demonstrates that both Tower-22 and Al-Tanf, Jordan and Syria, are newly vulnerable to weapons which the US forces have failed to detect and neutralize. Just as significantly, the massive US airbase called Muwaffaq Salti, 230 kilometres west across Jordan, is also vulnerable now.
It indicates that Iran now possesses Russian expertise in countering American equipment:
“This is a significant accomplishment,” one of the sources said. “Was the bypassing of the US air defence system at Tower-22 pulled off with Russian assistance? US bases generally rely on the C-RAM [Counter Rocket, Artillery and Mortar] system. It was sent to Ukraine last year where the Russians have been learning to defeat it. What now of American EW [electronic warfare]? They’ve been doing a fair job of knocking drones down up to now. It seems a ‘coincidence’ that, not a week after the meetings in Moscow with Arabs and Iranians, we see this success. It’s a success the circumstances of which, we can be sure, Biden and Austin are not keen to advertise.”
I am putting my take on the table right now: I am 99% certain that the US won't attack Iran directly. I think we are still quite a while away from that being a possibility. Much more likely is that Iranian officials in Iraq or Syria will be hit by a retaliatory strike, as Israel has done recently. It is a significant escalation nonetheless. And it comes as Israel seems to be gearing up for a suicidal war with Hezbollah.
The Country of the Week is Iran! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
Updates continue to be AWOL - but I am cooking something. Hopefully.
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Financial Times attempts their version of the roast of the infamous CIA video and the results are not amazing.
Guy who's only seem the covers of John Le Carré books: "This is reminiscent of the cover of a John Le Carré book."
China’s feared spy agency steps out of the shadows
Financial TimeSS
23 Jan 2024
Ministry of State Security pursues more public and political role as Xi tightens grip on nation
The slick ad from China’s feared spy agency, the Ministry of State Security, opens with the shadow of an agent walking through a dark tunnel, a scene reminiscent of the cover of a John le Carré novel.
“Who am I?” asks a mysterious voice. “I am this silhouette by your side . . . I face the ever-changing world and the surging tide of darkness.”
The dramatic ad, which references natural disasters, urban unrest and a pandemic, was released to mark National Police Day this month and is the latest sign of China’s premier intelligence agency emerging from the shadows to tout its role fighting “subversion, separatism, terrorism and espionage”.
This month, the agency, which has increasingly publicised its investigations, accused Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service, known as MI6, of instructing a foreign consultant to spy on China. Last year, it claimed to have arrested a Chinese national working for US intelligence services.
Analysts say the growing public profile of the MSS is part of President Xi Jinping’s increasing focus on security, as China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong seeks to tighten his hold on the country.
Aside from geopolitical tensions with the US and its allies, Xi’s China faces risks from slowing economic growth and an escalating trade rivalry with the EU. Within this fraught environment, analysts say, the MSS has enjoyed growing political stature and strength.
“This greater publicity reflects an increase in the MSS’s political status — not just its comfort with speaking publicly but actually the political backing to make statements on behalf of the government,” said Alex Joske, a consultant at McGrathNicol and the author of Spies and Lies, a book about the MSS.
Founded in 1983 during a shake-up of earlier agencies, the MSS is a civilian secret police service that the US has described as a combination of the FBI and the CIA. Its reach extends throughout Chinese society, from a central ministry to provincial and municipal branches.
The agency, which US counterparts say is responsible for counter-intelligence as well as political security for the Communist regime, has been accused of widespread espionage abroad, including recruiting a far-right Belgian politician as an asset to conduct influence operations in Europe.
Inside China, the MSS has broken with its more low-profile past approach as Xi’s government has stepped up warnings to the public about the dangers of espionage.
In 2021, the agency released details of its recruiting process through the civil service exam and last year launched an official account on WeChat, the country’s most popular social media platform, where it has begun providing daily updates.
The posts range from recounting the story of the first death of a CIA agent in the line of duty, who was killed in 1950 in Tibet, to informing citizens about counter-espionage work against Taiwan’s “separatists”.
“In the past, we saw other things taking precedence over national security,” said Adam Ni, publisher of newsletter China Neican.
Ni said that during the “reform and opening up” period that followed Mao Zedong’s rule, China’s emphasis was on economic growth and maintaining good relationships with trading partners. “But now, increasingly we are seeing more focus and resources diverted to national security.”
He pointed to amendments to anti-espionage law that expanded China’s definition of spying, as well as new legislation on data and raids on foreign consultancieslast year.
“The MSS has a bigger role . . . because of the shift to putting more focus on national security and the need to convince the public there is a genuine risk,” said Ni.
The security publicity campaign had also sought to persuade citizens that espionage was a real and pressing concern, Ni said, often through the use of social media.
In 2016, Beijing marked the first annual “National Security Education Day” with a cartoon titled Dangerous Love that warned hapless young women to be wary of foreigners, who could be spies. In 2021, China followed up with “National Police Day” to celebrate law enforcement.
The MSS’s leadership has also been accorded higher political status, reflecting its increased public role, Joske said. Chen Yixin, the minister of state security, and his predecessor Chen Wenqing have been elevated to more important Communist party positions than past intelligence chiefs.
Chen Wenqing, for example, was the first former MSS minister to be appointed to the party’s 24-member politburo and its central secretariat. In the past, factional politics prevented leaders from elevating MSS heads to such senior positions, Joske said.
The agency’s wider remit comes as the CCP adopts a broader view of security that encompasses data, technology, the environment and other issues.
“A lot more things are being interpreted or viewed within parts of the Chinese Communist party as state security,” Joske said, a shift that would not “bode well for China’s co-operation and engagement with the rest of the world”. Other experts said China’s economic slump could be feeding into the strengthening of the state’s security services, as authorities fear financial risks, including high debt among local governments and enterprises, could spread into social unrest.
“The Chinese economy is in pretty bad shape,” said Xu Chenggang, senior research scholar at Stanford University’s Center on China’s Economy and Institutions. “The Chinese Communist party realises this danger and realises that if a financial crisis occurred, it could be catastrophic.”
The MSS has occasionally commented on the economy on social media as it courts popular support. On Sunday, it published online a comic about the need to protect critical mineral resources from covetous foreign powers.
Since 2022, the agency has also been collaborating with a Shanghai production house on a recreation of a 1980s Chinese cartoon, Black Cat Detective, releasing one episode a year on National Police Day. In this year’s episode, Black Cat, in his retro police uniform with oversized epaulettes and white gloves, defeats data thieves, including archvillain One Ear the mouse, keeping the town of Forest safe and underlining the agency’s increased focus on online security. “Without data security, there is no Forest security,” Black Cat’s boss declares.
Did they write a whole essay for the US Army psyop ad where it implied it was behind Euromaidan and Tiananmen Square? Lol
Lmao