I think there are too many wild cards.

• Israel is capable of anything at any time.

• I assume that Hezbollah could finally go to war with Israel. I assume there's a number of dead (the number put out the health ministry) where Hezbollah will have reached its limit and war follows. I could be all wrong but then again - nobody knows for sure what Hezbollah could/would/might eventually do.

• Unexpected events in/near Israel could occur.