Image is of Stepanakert, essentially the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh. It is now a ghost city, and Azerbaijan has recently torn down the parliament building and various other important places. Sourced from this article.


Despite the predictions and assertions of various NATO-aligned commentators that Russia's influence is waning, the opposite generally appears to be occurring. ASEAN has become more strongly aligned with Russia despite claims to the contrary. In Central Asia, there has been a propaganda push to declare that countries there are "emerging from Russia's shadow", while in reality, as Bhadrakumar analyzes, Russia's significant economic growth and ongoing march towards victory in Ukraine is creating opportunities for further integration, not separation, and there are no major political shifts there in terms of Russian ties. And in Niger, Russian soldiers have now entered an airbase which once hosted American soldiers, now kicked out, and generally Russia's diplomacy and economic deals (nuclear power plant construction, military equipment, grain shipments, etc) have accelerated in Africa.

Where Russia's influence has actually seemed to decrease (outside of the West, of course) is in Armenia. Nagorno-Karabakh's remarkably rapid collapse in late 2023 demonstrated that Russia was not willing to escalate things in defense of Armenia to fend off Azerbaijan. One hundred thousand Armenians - most but not all of them in the region - fled in advance to avoid mass persecution, which received remarkably little attention by a West which calls itself overwhelmingly concerned with borders changing due to military action as in Ukraine. Since then, Armenia seems to be on some kind of self-annihilating bender, allured by the potential of Western military and economic deals. Armenia froze its membership in the CSTO due to its failure to protect them, and the head of NATO, Stoltenberg, visited the region in March. The West has offered up hundreds of millions of dollars in assistance to Armenia and is helping them "modernize their military"; given the poor track record of Western military equipment in Ukraine, one wonders why they're even bothering. RAND has advocated for a balancing act; America should, in their eyes, realize that they can't entirely remove Russia's influence but nonetheless should make inroads to protect Armenia from Azerbaijan (which is an interesting position given that Israel provided arms to Azerbaijan to help them take Nagorno-Karabakh).

A quick look at Armenia's geographical position reveals the folly of trying to create some kind of Western outpost. With a hostile Azerbaijan to their east, a very unfriendly (albeit NATO member) Turkiye to their west, an ascendant Iran to their south, and Russia not far from the action, there is little hope of doing much more than causing a little chaos in the hopes it'll momentarily distract Russia while it makes inroads most everywhere else on the planet. The political situation appears miserable for Pashinyan, but there isn't really a popular alternative to take the reins. A truly cursed situation.


The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.

The Country of the Week is Armenia! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • Neptium [comrade/them]
    ·
    4 months ago

    Al Mayadeen English - Time, Space, and the Will

    Those who have a connection to the land, and who know its every intimate corner will always have the advantage, even in the face of imperialist terror

    Journalist Antony Lowenstein wrote a book called “The Palestine Laboratory'', which details how the Zionist entity uses Palestine as a testing ground for their weapons which they sell to other merchants of death worldwide. In this article, I want to flip this laboratory analogy on its head, by showing how Palestine is where 21st-century guerilla warfare is being developed strategically and tactically. First, there will be a survey of a few 20th-century guerilla warfare tacticians such as Mao and Vo Nguyen Giap, who laid the ground for the Palestinian fedayeen of the 1960s and 1970s. Then, a piece of writing from the martyr Basel al Araj titled Live Like a Porcupine, Fight Like a Flea will be analyzed alongside the actions of resistance factions against the Zionist garrison state.

    In reference to the advances of the Vietnamese People’s Army against the French and American imperialists, General Vo Nguyen Giap argued that “in the face of an enemy as powerful as he is cruel, victory is possible only by uniting the whole people within the bosom of a firm and wide national front based on the worker-peasant alliance”. While General Giap is undoubtedly a master tactician of the previous generation, the rank and file of the people’s army showed how correct his analyses are in practice. The question of land remains the decisive factor in planning and executing guerilla warfare.

    Those who have a connection to the land, and who know its every intimate corner will always have the advantage, even in the face of imperialist terror. The Vietnamese People’s Army–under the leadership of Ho Chi Minh and General Giap–used the terrain to set traps for imperialist troops, but also to be able to mesh with the masses of workers and peasants. The types of traps used included false floors with snake pits underneath, nets to corral foreign troops into ambushes, spike traps that injured imperialist troops and sent them to the injured reserve. The point was never to confront the enemy face-to-face and inflict massive casualties, but to wear them out, spread them thin, and expose their barbarity. This also included nationwide programs of patriotic education and organization towards national unity and independence. General Giap continues: “Guerilla war is the war of the broad masses…is the enemy strong? One avoids him. Is he weak? One attacks him…there is no fixed line of demarcation, the front being wherever the enemy is found”.

    Besides the uses of time and space, the will of the Vietnamese people in their revolutionary war was quite a decisive factor against imperialist troops far from their homes. In the words of Ho Chi Minh: “It was patriotism…that inspired me. You will kill ten of us, we will kill one of you, but in the end, you will tire of it first. Remember, the storm is a good opportunity for the pine and the cypress to show their strength and their stability”. The question of supplying weapons in a hostile environment was also a key struggle. General Giap points out that this was mainly done through acquiring arms as ‘war booty’ and then training in their use for the next battle. This strategy is one which was exemplified in Operation Al Aqsa Flood, as discussed later. Mao Zedong and the People’s Liberation Army are another example of 20th century guerilla warriors who struck great blows against world imperialism.

    Like Vietnam, China’s PLA were very inspirational to the Palestinian fedayeen. Many photos can be found of PFLP commandos engaged in study sessions of Mao’s Red Book. In modern China, author Cixin Liu’s gripping sci-fi series “The Three Body Problem” pits humanity against an invading alien force who compares humans to bugs due to our relative technological inferiority. It is only when the humans realize that bugs have never been eradicated despite anyone’s efforts that their intergalactic guerilla warfare gains potency and vitality. On guerilla warfare, Mao says: “the enemy advances, we retreat; the enemy camps, we harass; the enemy tires, we attack; the enemy retreats, we pursue”. The Palestinian martyr-intellectual Basel al Araj terms this ‘the flea war’.

    Al Araj seamlessly weaves together an ecological analysis of the porcupine and the flea with a political-economic analysis of guerilla warfare in his piece Live Like a Porcupine, Fight Like a Flea. In regards to the flea, Al Araj points out that fleas do not kill their host through biting them and making them anemic, but rather the flea exhausts the host and spreads them thin physically and psychologically. As for the porcupine, the author describes this animal as one which is popular in Palestinian folklore, “[Palestinians] describe it as a strange creature; it cries and wails like humans, it has hopes and wishes. It's been likened to humans in that when upset, it directs its spikes towards predators in an attempt to strike them”. As for the defenses of the porcupine, beyond its spikes, Al Araj highlights that “porcupines are night animals that live underground in relatively large holes that connect to a network of tunnels, where it also creates rest spots.

    The porcupine uses various techniques to get in and out of its hole”. In a world-historical sense, then, we can see that the Palestinian resistance is advancing the theory and practice of guerilla warfare for the 21st century. In the absence of jungle or forested mountains in Gaza, the resistance has tunneled underground, like the porcupine, and have created an entire network of tunnels which bypass enemy positions and allow for the use of time and space to our people’s advantage.

    The tunnels of the resistance allow for the advancement of the ‘flea war’, whereby Hamas, PIJ, or PFLP commandos can attack over a large surface area while remaining in small units. This has done immense damage materially and psychologically to the Zionist enemy, especially since October 7th. This is evidenced by Gaza being littered with Merkavas and Zionist APCs which are no longer in use. In regards to General Giap’s insistence on the importance of ‘war booty’, time and evidence have shown that Operation Al Aqsa Flood was so successful in part because there were many Hamas units disguised as Zionist troops and using Zionist armaments which caused confusion among Zionist ranks. Palestinians have also reverse engineered the missiles dropped on Gaza, so unwittingly, the Zionists arm the revolutionary forces.

    In the West Bank as well, the actions of groups like Lion’s Den and the Jenin Brigades express another expression of the ‘flea war’ whereby Zionist troops are lured into mazes of alleys, harassed and corralled by youth with stones and Molotov cocktails until they arrive at a set location where they are ambushed by light, mobile infantry forces.

    This intimate relationship and collaboration between the resistance and the people is crystalized in the concept of the popular cradle. Not only is there a deep connection between the masses and the revolutionaries in practice, but we can see in the slogan of PIJ the importance of immaterial factors: “Islam as the starting point, jihad as the means, and the liberation of Palestine as the goal”. In a deeply religious society, Islam animates revolutionaries to fight against the “taghut” (the oppressor).

    The will of the Palestinian people for national liberation and self-determination is expressed through the society-wide resistance to colonial occupation and genocide. These immaterial factors aredecisive, according to General Giap, Mao Zedong, and Basel Al Araj. The victories in guerilla warfare come at a huge cost, and while I will refrain from romanticizing warfare, it is sufficient to say that Palestine is where guerilla war is being theoretically and practically developed in the 21st century after the failures of pitched battles against the Zionists and their imperialist sponsors in 1948, 1967, and 1973.

    Much like Vietnam, Palestine has powerful friends who provide aid. Iran not only supplies the resistance with weapons and open source blueprints to produce weapons domestically, but as of April 14th, provides a steadfast ally, willing to attack the Zionists and keep the flame of liberation alight. While Vietnam injured the imperialist war machine, Palestine will bury it.