Image is of protestors in Mexico City battling police and the barriers they erected, after protestors threw Molotovs at the Israeli embassy.

Much of the preamble has been sourced from Michael Roberts' recent analysis of Mexico.


Claudia Sheinbaum, part of the left-wing and populist Morena party to which AMLO also belongs, is now the first woman to ascend to the Mexican presidency. She is also a climate/energy scientist and was previously mayor of Mexico City. Results indicate that she has won with approximately 60% of the vote, which would be the highest vote percentage in Mexican history.

AMLO's presidency has been generally successful. He campaigned on reducing violence inside Mexico, and while this has technically occurred if measured from 2018, homicides are still considerably higher than in 2010. This is largely due to warring drug cartels, which are more reflective of the United States and its rise in drug addiction and thus imports from Mexico. He also campaigned on reducing corruption, which he also kinda has, and also on reducing income inequality, which he also kinda has. The overall figures don't show massive budges in income inequality, but the minimum wage has risen by 82% and manufacturing wage have risen 27%, and this plus other social programs has lifted 9 million Mexicans out of extreme poverty - a good achievement - but not much further than that, with poverty rates still above the Latin American average. Unemployment is officially at record lows, but much of this job growth has been in the informal sector.

The Mexican economy suffered greatly during the pandemic, and while growth since then has been pretty decent, the economy is still below where it was in 2018. As Mexican capitalists do not pay much in taxes, AMLO's programs have required large budget deficits and borrowing. These capitalists are, of course, not doing many productive investments and thus there is not much productivity growth; productivity has been more-or-less stagnant for two decades. The reason why Mexican capitalists are not investing is because of the major decline in profitability since the 1990s - there is no reason to invest if your money is at major risk of not making a profit. Therefore, they have followed the trend of other national capitalists of investing in real estate and speculation, particularly in American companies.

Since NAFTA/USMCA, Mexico has become increasingly dependent on the United States for a location for its exports, while the US has exploited cheap labour in Mexico. Additionally, with the anti-Chinese sanctions increasingly put in place by the US, Mexico has become one of several conduits for China to redirect its goods so that they can still reach American markets. This has allowed Mexico to have an essentially balanced trade account and keep the peso relatively strong against the dollar.

Mexico's limited fortunes will likely decline from here as the US economy continues to slow. If Trump is elected, he may decree protectionist policies which will hit a US-reliant Mexico quite hard. Additionally, industrial production has recently declined and retail spending is also down. AMLO's presidency was genuinely beneficial for the poorest 50%, but the policies he created failed to really change the fundamentals of the economy. He relied on the private sector rather than the public sector. This is not entirely his fault - if he had tried to do anything terribly transformative, Mexico would have probably been hit hard with consequences by the US and simultaneously faced a domestic revolt by Mexican capitalists. There were and are already threats of outright invasion in response to the limited things AMLO has already done.

In an increasingly multipolar future in which America becomes weaker and weaker, it's very possible that Mexico's reliance on the US will decrease, allowing parties to be more radical without facing the possibility of facing crippling sanctions like Venezuela. However, Mexico's sheer proximity to the US means that they might be among the last countries to break free of American influence, as the US will continue to bitterly resist any attempt to break down the Monroe Doctrine long after it loses Asia, Europe, and Africa. So, it seems likely that Sheinbaum may soon find herself in a situation where she is forced by capitalists to implement fiscal austerity regardless of her intentions, which is equivalent to a declaration of war on the working class. What happens then is anybody's guess.


The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.

The Country of the Week is Mexico! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • makotech222 [he/him]
    ·
    25 days ago

    This is the hopium i need:

    https://x.com/bidetmarxman/status/1799129967651070159

    article: https://indi.ca/israel-has-lost-the-north/

    About how hezbollah is dismantling the iron dome

    • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
      hexagon
      M
      ·
      25 days ago

      For months I've been talking about how Israel is attempting, and failing, to substitute Zionist morale-raising crimes against humanity against Palestinians and Tiktok dances for military victories, and it isn't working. This is one of the better articles I've seen explaining it. For people who only really observe the war on the timespan of the day-to-day, it's difficult to determine to what extent Hezbollah and Hamas are really doing anything. But for those who are capable of seeing the broader trends over months, it's really remarkable how much progress has been made in the dismantling of the Zionist entity.

      Personally, while I don't think that Israel prefers having actions that would make Goebbels faint broadcast to the world due to the loss in soft power, the constant stream of atrocities does still benefit them by drowning out more positive news. For every time you see a Hamas soldier blow up a tank or a Hezbollah soldier blow up a small base, you see 20 videos of schools full of children being obliterated by bombing raids. The issue for Israel is that murdering thousands of babies does not, surprisingly, have any military advantage. The people inside Gaza aren't going to give up because you do it, and even if they did give up, what then? Even if they wanted to betray Hamas, do you think they know where the tunnels are any more than the Israelis do?

      So Israel's stuck in this rut: they cannot achieve meaningful military victories, so they substitute it with propaganda for the domestic audience of Palestinians being tortured (which subsequently makes it to people who were born with even a shred of empathy and they become dismayed, disheartened, and worst of all: doomers). Meanwhile, the Resistance factions are prying Israel apart, applying both internal and external pressure, but this is a subtler and longer-term process.

      It's fascinatingly boring how Hezbollah did this. For months their videos have been methodically mundane, blowing up this communication tower, that building, that listening station. It seemed like a bunch of nothing, but it adds up. Hezbollah had a list of 'Israel's' eyes and ears in the north and has spent months methodically eye poking them, like Odysseus and the Cyclops. Now—however big the IOF might be—they're effectively blinded.

      As Hezbollah opens bigger and bigger gaps in 'Israel's' air defenses, they can send bigger and more missiles in, with better and better penetration. For 'Israel', this attrition is a compounding problem. Their air defenses are a connected system and the network is increasingly returning 404. Take for example, the destruction of the $230 million dollar SKYDEW blimp/spy balloon. This balloon is designed to detect low-flying drones and missiles, especially important as this is the vector most used by the Resistance. SKYDEW can stay up much longer (and relatively cheaper) than planes, and can 'see' much further than ground-based systems. It was also placed in a highly strategic area that let them cover attacks from Syria, Iraq and—to a lesser degree—from Hezbollah, specifically on the port of Haifa. But now the party's over. Look at the balloon now:

      SKYDEW is now as shriveled and useless as Joe Biden's nutsack. This is a big loss, which also signals a big breakdown. As the SKYDEW 'Target Card' (from Hezbollah intelligence) says, it was “protected by an electronic monitoring and jamming system against drones and UAVs (Drone Dome),” and “secured by three layers of missile interception systems: Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Hetz [Arrow].” That all got sliced through like the layers of an onion, leaving only Zionist tears behind.

      ...

      Hezbollah of course, has counted the north. They have a list of 'Israeli' military targets and they go through them one by one. Take, for example, the Mount Meron Air Surveillance Base, one of the two main bases in 'Israel'. This is what the IOF says about the base, in a 2016 article by Maariv (via translation):

      One of the senior officials of the Air Force adds: "The air control system is crucial for the operational capability of the Air Force. Its main duty is to protect the occupied airspace. Through the control system, we activate all capabilities to protect the sky, including helicopters, aircraft, missiles, and other classified systems."

      And this is what Hezbollah intelligence released, as they were bombing it:

      Firstly, the Meron Air Surveillance Base is located on the summit of Mount Jarmaq ["Mount Meron"] in northern occupied Palestine, the highest peak in occupied Palestine. Meron Base is the sole center for administration, surveillance, and air control in the northern part of the usurping entity and there is no major alternative to it. It is one of two main bases in the entire usurping entity: "Meron" in the north, and the second being "Mitzpe Ramon" in the south.

      The Meron Base is responsible for organizing, coordinating, and managing all air operations towards Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, Cyprus, and the northern part of the eastern basin of the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, this base is a main center for electronic jamming operations in the aforementioned directions and is staffed by a large number of elite officers and soldiers of the zionist forces.

      Now the Meron base can barely defend itself, let alone the region. 'Israel' has responded by assassinating Hezbollah (and Iranian) leaders, but the Resistance just names missiles after the martyrs and send more. This is a battle of attrition and Hezbollah is paying attention while 'Israel' is mindlessly lashing out. 'Israel' is completely distracted by a genocide in the south, and has lost the battle for the north. After months of this boring de-administrative work, Hezbollah has finally gotten to the good stuff. 'Israel's' northern air defenses today are like a ragged old mosquito net that the dog chased the cat through. It's full of holes, and big ones. Hezbollah can increasingly fire at will, with increasingly accurate weapons.

      ...

      'Israel' has nothing worth calling an air-defense in the north anymore. The Iron Dome is done. Hezbollah can fire at will, and has for every single day for seven months now. Iraqi Resistance missiles are flying right over them, towards Haifa. Iran can overwhelm the entire national system whenever it wants. 'Israel' can still offend the conscience, but they're missile defenseless now. Even Hamas is hitting them, from within traumatized Gaza. It's open season, and the 'settlers' know it.

      'Israeli' settlers openly bemoan their unsettled state all over the Hebrew press. Some settlers were so Pyrrhicly pissed they threatened to secede from the entire abomi-nation and form the new State of Galilee. As The Jerusalem Post (the ethnic cleanser's preferred real estate supplement) said,

      The straw that broke the camel's back was the prime minister's answer at the cabinet meeting to a question by Benny Gantz, as reported by N12. Gantz wondered if the residents would return to their homes on September 1, for the start of the school year, and Netanyahu replied, "What's the worst that will happen if they return a few months after September 1?"

      This is of course the worst that can happen. The entire premise of 'Israel' is that they can do whatever they want and fuck everyone else. If the Iron Dome doesn't work, 'Israel' doesn't work, and the Iron Dome doesn't work. It's the Iron Sieve now. Holy warriors have poked it full of holes. This is a huge problem because the Iron Dome is not just 'Israel's' physical defense mechanism, it's their psychological defense mechanism. It's what makes the whole colonial project believable, that they can piss off everyone in the region and suffer no consequences. Belief in the 'Iron Dome' is belief in 'Israel' and neither is believable anymore. Thus the northern 'settlements' have emptied out and they're not coming back anytime soon.

    • rio [none/use name]
      ·
      25 days ago

      I know the demonic testicles of Meron Air Base well, having seen Hezbollah come at them like sperm to an egg, over and over in countless videos. They've been relentless. It honestly gets boring because the whole thing never fireballs, but each small hit adds up. Each time a hole in 'Israeli' air defenses opens, the hole only gets bigger, because of Hezbollah is damaging complex, interconnected systems.

      Prose

      After months of this boring de-administrative work, Hezbollah has finally gotten to the good stuff. 'Israel's' northern air defenses today are like a ragged old mosquito net that the dog chased the cat through. It's full of holes, and big ones. Hezbollah can increasingly fire at will, with increasingly accurate weapons. For example, here is Hezbollah taking down a SKYSTAR 330 by drone-striking its Battalion 869 operator literally in the nuts.

      Poetry

      This is a huge problem because the Iron Dome is not just 'Israel's' physical defense mechanism, it's their psychological defense mechanism. It's what makes the whole colonial project believable, that they can piss off everyone in the region and suffer no consequences. Belief in the 'Iron Dome' is belief in 'Israel' and neither is believable anymore. Thus the northern 'settlements' have emptied out and they're not coming back anytime soon.

      Eschatological & dialectic

      The colonial condom is full of holes and 'Israel' is pregnant with a Palestine reborn.

      Well, it’s certainly evocative I’ll give him that

      This is all causing massive psychological damage to 'Israel' because the Iron Dome was their safety blanket, and now they have to face the skeletons under their bed alone. This is all because Hezbollah had a strategy while 'Israel' was just ratchety, bombing ambulances and homes with no military value.

      Not just missiles but truth bombs heading towards Tel Aviv right now

    • Evilphd666 [he/him, comrade/them]
      ·
      edit-2
      25 days ago

      There's about 5 to 10 years before an energy based Iron Dome (who is to say it can successfully target hypersonics) So if they want to do something funny they ought not to drag their feet.

      • plinky [he/him]
        ·
        edit-2
        25 days ago

        with its range of 2 km best case, and turning speed of maybe 30 degrees a second, 5 3 mach rockets with same arrival time (which is fairly non-trivial, to be sure) are enough to overwhelm one system, especially if it has some issues on some angles (90 degrees from top or someshit), 10 to be sure, or during dust storms. Those systems are impressive but unless they make some nuts optical turning its not invincible

      • WashedAnus [he/him]
        ·
        edit-2
        25 days ago

        The cool thing about laser weapons is they're (theoretically) better at protecting other objects than themselves. A missile flying at the laser weapon has a very small cross-section, warheads tend to be well armored (both to protect from missile defense as well as increase penetration before it explodes), and the air blowing passed the nose helps to cool it faster than any other part (and laser weapons depend almost entirely on transferring heat to the target), whereas a missile flying perpendicular to the beam has more exposed surface area, that surface area is less armored, there are more critical aerodynamic surfaces exposed, and there is less cooling effect from relative air movement.

        So, if you know where the emitter is, you can probably take it out easily, especially with hypersonics. I imagine we would also see more polished-mirror surfaces on missiles if laser weapons actually become a thing. On top of that, they require immense amounts of power, giving another angle for sabotage.