Italy has already elected a far right government that endorses fascist rallies
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/01/10/italy-s-government-under-fire-from-opposition-after-fascist-rally-in-rome_6420540_4.html
AfD is making record gains in Germany
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germanys-far-right-makes-strong-gains-eu-vote-despite-scandals-2024-06-09/
National Rally are poised to win elections in France
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-69102843
16% AfD is more than concerning, but I have already made peace with the fact that they are going to make it past 20% on the national level at some point. CDU/CSU + AfD as a junior partner in a coalition is a possibility. I'm not saying it's 100% going to happen, but I consider it at least possible.
European left shat the bed by aligning with warmongering libs. This left the right as the only parties to have a consistent anti-war position from the start. Now the right is massively capitalizing on the public opinion souring on the war.
Hexbears have been predicting this as the eventual outcome for 2 years now.
I recall libs ridiculing me when I predicted this would happen, but yeah anybody with a clue knew this was inevitable.
More of a german/french phenomenon than broadly european (though maybe france and germany are the only countries that really matter honestly), in most EU countries the further right wing parties are also pro-war, and here in portugal where the communist party has been consistently anti-war, moreso than dem soc Left Block, including opposing arms shipments to ukraine even, we just get consistently attacked and mischaracterized in the media and I can't say we've made electoral gains from taking a principled anti-nato position, maybe we will in the long run but not yet, it has definitely cost us votes.
Public opinion on the war hasn't soured that much here (fucking portuguese provincialism wanting to be "close to europe"), and even where it has a lot of people are still unwilling to go along with us when we call for something like a political solution.
I think the fact that France and Germany play such a dominant role in Europe is precisely why this is such a big problem.
The only meaningfully anti war Social Democratic Party in my country got like 3% of the vote.
The european left has shat the bed decades ago when they turned from social democrats to neoliberal ghouls. Nobody actually cares about the Ukraine.
AfD polls (blue line) have been decreasing the past 6 months, no real of way of knowing how it goes going forward
considering spinelessness of spd, cdu will go with spd/greens nationally (locally cdu/afd likely will happen tho)