We're slowly churning through our allies in the Pacific. Tin pot dictators are expensive and really bad for business. Successful economies don't want chuds from the WTO leaning over their shoulders and saying "No, no, you're doing it wrong". And the China-Russia axis is gearing up to offer Eur-Asia and Africa what simply amounts to a better deal.
Just parking a few aircraft carriers in the Indian Ocean isn't going to do it anymore. We burned Pakistan. We burned Iraq. We burned Afghanistan. We burned Yugoslavia. We burned Turkey. We're slowly burning out in S. Korea and Japan. Phillipines is a dumpster fire. Indonesians are getting tired of us. The Saudis can't control their own satrapies. The Israelis are too fascist even for the Americans. France is rediscovering DeGaulism. Germany's rediscovering Bismarkism. The UK is fucking worthless. Australia spends half the year on fire. Modi's India is collapsing on itself as we speak.
Genuinely curious how many allies we're going to even have left in another ten years. Much less how we're going to pay for them.
There's still the colour revolutions (Myanmar, Thailand). Although after HK, not sure how reliable those are. I hesitate to count the US out; it's propaganda apparatus is still unmatched. Also, regarding Australia, they seem to be banging the drums recently.
I hesitate to count the US out; it’s propaganda apparatus is still unmatched. Also, regarding Australia, they seem to be banging the drums recently.
Australia's GDP peaked in 2013. They can bang their drum all they fucking like. The drum is also on fire.
And HK seems to be a compelling counterpoint to the "American propaganda is unmatched" narrative. Also, if you look around at these color revolutions over the last ten or fifteen years, they haven't radically changed the status quo. Americans still struggle to grip the Ukraine, the efforts in Iran were firmly rebuffed, the efforts in Venezuela and Bolivia were rebuffed, Brazil is reverting back to the Lula status-quo, Pakistan backfired, China's Jasmine revolt was flubbed, Turkey was a flop, the effort to get Alexei Navalny sympathy in Russia appears to have largely failed, Afghanistan is just a series of increasingly obvious Ls...
Where revolutions have succeeded - Egypt, Libya, Guatemala, Sudan, I guess India kinda? - the long-term consequences have mostly been to tread water at the expense of a more stable government.
And we're all over the place. Too many adversaries, not nearly enough allies. The post-Iraq World no longer has the EU on our side.
The post-Iraq World no longer has the EU on our side.
How do you figure that? The EU still votes with the US in the UN. When the US tells them to scrap Huawei 5G they do so obediently. NATO is still a thing and may even get worse if the hawkish Greens in Germany get in. They agree with the US on Xinjiang.
Russia going ahead with the Eastern Euro pipeline over American objection. Europeans really not getting involved in Iraq or Afghanistan. Europeans not biting on Iran sanctions and pretty much abandoning Cuba sanctions.
Huawei is a serious competitor to both European telecomm and European domestic espionage, so that's more self-interest. I suspect the Greens in Germany - like the Greens in the US - have been compromised, but I am dubious of their capacity to move Germany on its relative neutrality given how hard that would fuck the country economically.
And I think that's really at the heart of so much of this shit. The money. America isn't the center of the global economy now that it's been rebuilt following WW/Cold Wars. Lots of money to be had that doesn't flow through the States.
Greens in Germany. Pipeline. It's really convenient if you think about it. Wasn't the EU also involved in that sanctions spree against PRC?
The Huawei thing I'd be more inclined to believe if they had just straight up rejected the implementation from the get-go. It's only when the US got involved, then suddenly everyone wanted to drop 5G.
Regarding the likelihood of Germany making a move, if they're as much of a poodle as Australia when the greens get in, I think they might just break neutrality. Australia pretty much fucked their own economy going against PRC and ironically it was their US masters benefiting because PRC started importing from the US instead. The point is, if they're anything like Australia, they'll fucking fall on the sword so the US can benefit.
Australia pretty much fucked their own economy going against PRC and ironically it was their US masters benefiting because PRC started importing from the US instead.
They've been fucking their economy one way or another for decades.
I don't know if there strictly comparable to the Germans, who are far more interested in consolidating Europe than appeasing the US.
who are far more interested in consolidating Europe than appeasing the US.
For now, maybe. Merkel at least shows interest in working with PRC. My concern is whether or not the Greens will turn Germany into poodles like Brazil (voted against vaccine waiver) and Australia (fucked their own exports).
I mean, we'll see. But I doubt it. They're gunning for a plurality, not a majority. And the hype around these wave elections never seems to show up in practice.
I suspect they'll be wrestling with their own Corporate Blue Dogs, just like the Americans are
We're slowly churning through our allies in the Pacific. Tin pot dictators are expensive and really bad for business. Successful economies don't want chuds from the WTO leaning over their shoulders and saying "No, no, you're doing it wrong". And the China-Russia axis is gearing up to offer Eur-Asia and Africa what simply amounts to a better deal.
Just parking a few aircraft carriers in the Indian Ocean isn't going to do it anymore. We burned Pakistan. We burned Iraq. We burned Afghanistan. We burned Yugoslavia. We burned Turkey. We're slowly burning out in S. Korea and Japan. Phillipines is a dumpster fire. Indonesians are getting tired of us. The Saudis can't control their own satrapies. The Israelis are too fascist even for the Americans. France is rediscovering DeGaulism. Germany's rediscovering Bismarkism. The UK is fucking worthless. Australia spends half the year on fire. Modi's India is collapsing on itself as we speak.
Genuinely curious how many allies we're going to even have left in another ten years. Much less how we're going to pay for them.
There's still the colour revolutions (Myanmar, Thailand). Although after HK, not sure how reliable those are. I hesitate to count the US out; it's propaganda apparatus is still unmatched. Also, regarding Australia, they seem to be banging the drums recently.
Ah, yes. The glorious color revolution of Myanmar. How's that going again?
Australia's GDP peaked in 2013. They can bang their drum all they fucking like. The drum is also on fire.
And HK seems to be a compelling counterpoint to the "American propaganda is unmatched" narrative. Also, if you look around at these color revolutions over the last ten or fifteen years, they haven't radically changed the status quo. Americans still struggle to grip the Ukraine, the efforts in Iran were firmly rebuffed, the efforts in Venezuela and Bolivia were rebuffed, Brazil is reverting back to the Lula status-quo, Pakistan backfired, China's Jasmine revolt was flubbed, Turkey was a flop, the effort to get Alexei Navalny sympathy in Russia appears to have largely failed, Afghanistan is just a series of increasingly obvious Ls...
Where revolutions have succeeded - Egypt, Libya, Guatemala, Sudan, I guess India kinda? - the long-term consequences have mostly been to tread water at the expense of a more stable government.
And we're all over the place. Too many adversaries, not nearly enough allies. The post-Iraq World no longer has the EU on our side.
How do you figure that? The EU still votes with the US in the UN. When the US tells them to scrap Huawei 5G they do so obediently. NATO is still a thing and may even get worse if the hawkish Greens in Germany get in. They agree with the US on Xinjiang.
Russia going ahead with the Eastern Euro pipeline over American objection. Europeans really not getting involved in Iraq or Afghanistan. Europeans not biting on Iran sanctions and pretty much abandoning Cuba sanctions.
Huawei is a serious competitor to both European telecomm and European domestic espionage, so that's more self-interest. I suspect the Greens in Germany - like the Greens in the US - have been compromised, but I am dubious of their capacity to move Germany on its relative neutrality given how hard that would fuck the country economically.
And I think that's really at the heart of so much of this shit. The money. America isn't the center of the global economy now that it's been rebuilt following WW/Cold Wars. Lots of money to be had that doesn't flow through the States.
Greens in Germany. Pipeline. It's really convenient if you think about it. Wasn't the EU also involved in that sanctions spree against PRC?
The Huawei thing I'd be more inclined to believe if they had just straight up rejected the implementation from the get-go. It's only when the US got involved, then suddenly everyone wanted to drop 5G.
Regarding the likelihood of Germany making a move, if they're as much of a poodle as Australia when the greens get in, I think they might just break neutrality. Australia pretty much fucked their own economy going against PRC and ironically it was their US masters benefiting because PRC started importing from the US instead. The point is, if they're anything like Australia, they'll fucking fall on the sword so the US can benefit.
They've been fucking their economy one way or another for decades.
I don't know if there strictly comparable to the Germans, who are far more interested in consolidating Europe than appeasing the US.
For now, maybe. Merkel at least shows interest in working with PRC. My concern is whether or not the Greens will turn Germany into poodles like Brazil (voted against vaccine waiver) and Australia (fucked their own exports).
I mean, we'll see. But I doubt it. They're gunning for a plurality, not a majority. And the hype around these wave elections never seems to show up in practice.
I suspect they'll be wrestling with their own Corporate Blue Dogs, just like the Americans are
stop saying "we" lol.