does anyone have recent excess death statistics, most local areas say something like 500 cases. like i see thousands of people running around at pride with no masks.... i feel like people are insane
does anyone have recent excess death statistics, most local areas say something like 500 cases. like i see thousands of people running around at pride with no masks.... i feel like people are insane
There are still a few hundred people dying per day, but it's on the decline and with well over half the population immune (a number that's only heading up) the writing is on the wall. Cases should drop under 10k per day within a couple weeks. Summer temperatures will be good for keeping numbers low, too.
Vaccinations are still happening, btw - we're not in the "everyone who wants one has it" stage yet. There are still a million new doses per day and a lot of people - particularly in marginalized communities - are getting it now. People who live either in urban cores without a car or poor transit access still have trouble accessing the vaccine, while people in rural areas might have to travel long distances to get it. A lot of the new vaccinations are coming from those groups. And many people who are vaccine skeptical could very well get it later on - there will always be hardcore anti-vaxxers and fuck those people but there are just as many "wait and see" folks that are seeing it work.
As of now if you're vaccinated you're pretty safe going outside without a mask. It took me a while to get used to it (and I still mask indoors, mostly as a courtesy) but the fact is most covid spread even pre-vaccine was indoors. Post-vaccine (if you're vaccinated), you're very unlikely to spread it even indoors. The proof is in the numbers - cases are plummeting even with restrictions lifting and people getting back to normal because the vaccine works.
The doomers have been wrong about everything this year, and they can stay wrong and stay mad. They were wrong about B117 escaping the vaccine, wrong about the delta variant escaping the vaccine, wrong about a spring 2021 wave, and they'll keep being wrong for internet points until we stop giving the points to them. Look at any doomer post from the past 6 months and laugh about how wrong they were. Covid isn't over yet - it's disrepectful to say that when hundreds are still dying every day - but if you're vaccinated you really can get most of the way back to normal. And if you know anyone on the fence about the vaccine or struggling with vaccine access, please be a comrade and help them out!
Sure, if you use hindsight to take every prediction that didn't pan out and call it "doomer", and every prediction that did and say that that's just being rational, then the doomers are fucking idiots who never get anything right. When you add in "no, there's no way this will be over by the summer of 2020" and "people traveling for thanksgiving/christmas will lead to a massive increase in cases and deaths" to the doomer category, it's not so clear.
I mean, covid seems like a weird place to make this point, considering that when covid first hit the news, the non-doomer position was "The media always scares people about stuff like this for ratings. It will be like ebola, a handful of people will get it, and then we'll forget about it."
They're also wrong about the delta variant, we only have data from one vaccine, it no where near enough to conclude that other vaccines aren't effected by the delta variant.
That's why I said "this year." The doomers on here have been pretty much wrong about everything post-vaccine.
So really it's "and they’ll keep being wrong for internet points until they start being right again"
You're using the fact that conditions have been improving recently to push people to ignore anyone who says they won't keep improving in the future.
...Yes?
"They were right until a major therapeutic breakthrough occurred, and are now wrong because they failed to update their priors" is not unreasonable.
I believe the doomers were correct about government responses to the pandemic but extremely wrong about therapeutics. Now that the primary mitigation strategy is from therapeutics rather than public policy, the doomers have gone from being right to being wrong.
If you want to inform people about why you think an optimistic outlook on post vaccine covid recovery is justified, great.
My problem is with rallying against doomers generally. Doomers are right when they're right and wrong when they're wrong. We shouldn't be pushing people to ignore doomers as a rule, because at some point they're going to be right again about something.
Your post may not have intended that specifically, but the way people were responding, that seemed to be the message they were getting, and I wanted to push back against that.
Except what you call doomerism is already happening . Vaccine escape variants are popping up with increasing competency. Infection rates are still high globally, increasing the risk of new variants. Most governments have given up on eradication, instead leading us down a path of this being like the flu - seasonal, goes after the elderly, only 10X more deadly.
This is not a good outcome our situation, though it might be nice to have this current tentative reprieve if you're privileged enough to be vaccinated.
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If all you're saying is wearing a mask is good, then it's pretty obvious I wasn't talking about you...? I literally agreed with that in my post?
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It's also bizarrely somewhat helpful in that it can be a self defeating prophecy if people react to it
a bit weird to flex at the doomers after covid killed millions of people and shut down the world for over a year
True, but unfortunately, B.1.351 beta variant is basically an escape variant for the AZ vaccine. Effectiveness down to 10-22% for that vaccine with the beta B.1.351 variant. Southern African countries had to send shipments back of the AZ vaccine because of this, but again, you wouldn't know because no one cares about Africa. Phizer effectiveness is down to 75% for this variant.
How? No one is wrong or right, there is not enough data yet. Phizer vaccine effectiveness down from 95% to 75% on the delta variant. No data for the other vaccines. This is pretty worrying because it's the same drop in effectiveness as the beta variant, and if other vaccines, such as the AZ vaccine, react the same way to the delta variant as the beta variant, this could be an effective escape variant for vaccines such as the AZ vaccine. But again, not enough data as of yet.
Depending on where you live, the "doomers" have either been wrong or right. If you live in the USA or UK, the doomers have been wrong this year. If you live in Southern Africa or India, the "doomers" have been right unfortunately.
I mean this thread is literally about the USA, it’s in the title. Situations are obviously different in different regions. India, South America, etc. are going through horrific outbreaks thanks to vaccine apartheid. My comment was only about the US because that’s what this thread is about.
Exactly. Doomers need to get a check on their mental health. I say this as someone who resorted to copious amounts of cocaine and alcohol to power my way through losing my job, lockdowns, and isolation.
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