So, I've seen discussions on here that make me think most people here think that multipolarity would be helpful. But I saw some discourse elsewhere about the topic and there was a lot of disagreement about it, but most people were against actively working towards it and said that it wouldnt help anything. I also talked to my three main ML discord friends about the topic and none of them really supported it. One was against it entirely, another fairly neutral, and the other said its not a goal in and of itself but would serve a progressive purpose.
(Their positions on the Ukraine war are also more moderated than some of the ones I see on here though? But I'm also very mixed up and confused about what people think right now because some of the things my friends said were nOT what I thought they thought about the situation).
Ive seen the following Lenin quote used against the idea of multipolarity:
But I've also been told that thats not what Lenin meant at all and that he was talking more domestically than about geopolitical conflict. The quote above is also used as an argument against "critical support of Russia", and MLMs (and anti-Dengist MLs, and Leftcoms) use it as an argument against "critical support of China". My friends online all have slightly different takes on the Ukraine War, one sees it as inter-imperialist conflict and "fundamentally similar to WW1", but another thinks that Russia doesn't count as imperliast under the Leninist definition but is still against the invasion. These are both more moderate takes than i USUALLY see here but I know we arent a monilith. The one that thinks its an inter-imperalist conflict stands by this statement from her party: https://ycl.org.uk/2022/02/25/the-central-committee-of-the-young-communist-league-has-issued-the-following-statement-in-response-to-russian-invasion-of-ukraine/ and dismisses "critical support for Russia" as "twitter jibber jabber". Both, however, think that revolutionairy defeatism means that we as people living in NATO countries should oppose our own country's involvement in the war and oppose NATO generally. I do remember getting into an argument here with someone, who has since gone inactive, who felt that revolutionairy defeatism does NOT apply to Russians living in Russia, and I thought it did. They thought that Russia is a national struggle for its survival and should win outright ect. That is a more extreme position than I usually see from others here, and my side of that argument got more upbears I think.
Sorry, I have a problem where i learn best through discourse and rely on people who I admire and think of as smarter than me to help me figure things out. And when they disagree, I get confused X_X. I know thats not the best, but its the way my brain functions unfortunately. I'm sorry my brain is developing in real time and Im not sure what to think about things right now. This turned into a long rant about stuff thats not all related to the main question. But any input or help you could give would be welcome.
TL;DR: “Multi-polarity” is simply a by-product of a declining US unipolar hegemony, the main question is in identifying the historical forces behind such movement and whether it is beneficial to the proletariat of the world.
First, the war in Ukraine is indeed an inter-imperialist conflict, but one that is between the US and European imperialists, with Ukraine and Russia caught in the middle as peripheral states.
To understand this, you first need to see this conflict as part of a much larger struggle between finance and industrial capital.
Ask yourself this: why would the US want to destroy Russia in Ukraine? Russia’s economy is tiny, it serves zero threat to the US hegemony unless we’re talking about nukes. Russia has no major industries that are in active competition with the US (name one except for military industrial complex - we’ll get to that in a moment), it has no financial foothold in the international stage (85% of the world’s transaction runs in dollar).
What does Russia have? What role does Russia play in the context of global imperialism? Serving as a cheap resource colony for Europe.
The European Union was formed in 1993 following the collapse of the Soviet Union and through the financialization of the crumbling post-Soviet economy, was able to establish itself as competing rival to the US imperialist hegemony. The establishment of eurozone in 1999 further threatens to compete with the dollar itself.
There are only two major rivals to the US today: China and the EU. To take on China, the US cannot risk Europe throwing its weight behind China which could tilt the balance of power away from the US. Therefore, Europe must be destroyed before the US financial capital can move to directly take on China’s industrial capital. Ukraine was the entry point to destabilize Europe.
After the global financial crisis of 2009, the EU was able to rapidly recover its manufacturing industries by forging closer economic ties with Russia. Nord Stream 1 opened in 2011, supplying cheap Russian gas to bolster European manufacturing sector. It is not a coincidence that the Maidan revolution happened in Ukraine in 2013. It is also not a coincidence that when Nord Stream 2 finished its construction in 2021, the US kept finding faults to delay certification throughout the year, and through endless provocations led to the war in Ukraine in 2022. As the Europeans began to cave in to the blowback of sanctions against Russia, both Nord Stream pipelines were bombed.
The above events, and the outcome of the war in Ukraine after nearly two years, can only make sense when understood in this context. Europe has been properly disciplined by the US, with its financial capital now completely aligned with the US, while sacrificing its industrial economy in the process. Europe was “forced” to donate their military hardwares to Ukraine, and are now being replaced by signing contracts with American military contractors. Most importantly, it is simply a prelude to the final confrontation with China.
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Second, once you have understood that the US global hegemony is largely financial in nature, you’d understand that no left wing governments and movements can flourish so long as the US imperialism remains in place.
Here’s what Michael Hudson wrote about Argentina, and the lesson about why every left wing government is forced to behave like a right wing government in the Global South (the election of Milei by the Argentinian people can only make sense once you have understood how the economic and financial arms of US imperialism work to further entrench its global hegemony):
The US controls the global supply of energy, food, trade and financial transactions through a network of global financial institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and WTO and threaten the Global South countries who refuse to submit to this liberal free trade order with economic sanctions.
When such threats of economic warfare fail to dissuade emerging left wing governments seeking to assert their own economic sovereignty, the more direct, fascistic military coup takes place:
The Afghan communist government, whose progressive policies once allowed women to go to schools and hold professional jobs, had to be brutally destroyed in the name of anti-Soviet communism.
The Indonesian communist-aligned government, who once proposed a Non-Aligned Movement for the Third World countries to become independent from the US and the USSR (Bandung Conference), had to pay with one million innocent people murdered in the name of anti-communism.
The Iranian social democratic government, who once sought to nationalize its natural resources from being exploited from foreign corporations, had to be couped and the corrupt monarchy restored, which eventually precipitated in the Islamic Revolution and the rise of religious conservatism.
The Chilean social democratic government, also sought to nationalize its resources, met again with the same fate of hundreds of thousands of left wing activists brutally murdered by right wing death squads, and the introduction of neoliberal shock therapy to completely ruin whatever remains of its economy.
As you can see, progressive left-wing movements have emerged many times throughout the Global South, and wherever you look, you can see the fingerprints of US imperialism behind their destruction over the past century.
All this talk about “supporting left wing movements” are complete nonsense and useless if they are not paired with the destruction of US imperialism itself.
Also adding one point I forgot to include above: some people are confused about why, if the war in Ukraine is an inter-imperialist conflict between the US and the EU, the European imperialists would fully participate in sanctioning Russia, if the US goal was to destroy the EU-Russia economic relationship?
If anything, this exposes the colonial attitude of the Europeans against Russia: “Who else are you going to sell your oil and gas to if we, your colonial masters, stopped purchasing them? Your economy is tiny, they’re smaller than Italy’s GDP. Without us, you are nothing. We will stop buying your oil and gas as punishment for being a nuisance in Ukraine, until you crawl back to beg us again, then we’ll reconsider the terms of your supplies.”
As you can see, the European imperialists fully expected Russia - a resource colony of theirs - to fold under the massive weight of European sanctions. Mistakes in calculations aside, this chauvinist and imperialist attitude against Russia was already revealed back in 2013 during the Euromaidan coup in Ukraine, which was caused by the EU wanting to flood the Russian market with cheap European goods (made thanks to cheap Russian gas!) by exploiting the existing Ukraine-Russia tariff free agreement.
Europe has never treated Russia as an equal partner. They have always seen it as a gas station and nothing more than that. Russia throwing tantrum in Ukraine? Let’s hit them with sanctions until they feel the pain. Because they will surely come back and beg us for forgiveness, right? The problem is their chauvinist attitude caused them to massively underestimate how much this could backfire on them.
Excellent points and overall take, thank you
thank you, I don't even think I saw this take on Lemmygrad. what a relief not to do the insane cassandra rants.