What if this fusion power thing actually pans out? The ITER is on track, and the scale model test in China earlier this year looked very promising. If we had access to (what from our perspective seems like) infinite clean energy what could we do with it? Transmute elements? Desalinize seawater? Drive a rotating magnetic field the size of the planet for wireless global electric power? What are the limits?
The limits are time, or the lack thereof.
There's no question that fusion tech is/will be viable in the near future; the physics is on our side, and there's no real reason why it can't happen on a smaller scale. However, safety testing and setup for a real-deal "live" reactor will take decades. The closest analogue we have are nuclear power plants, and those take anywhere from 10-20 years to set up from end of construction to full operational status. I imagine a fusion plant would involve a similar timescale, and possibly more time still as it's brand new tech.
As for the energy limitlessness, that's not quite accurate; they still require fairly exotic fuel sources, and while not exactly in short supply, the locations in which they're present are limited, so not every nation will have access.
But to get to my previous point, is that we are running against a climate apocalypse countdown, and the numbers are currently not on humanity's side. I hope a working plant gets made soon, but I'm not seeing it.
I suppose getting the ITER up and running is dependent on war not breaking out in Europe and continued global scientific collaboration. Assuming that these conditions will hold out is maybe overoptimistic given the track record of the last three hundred years of history and the looming threat of environmental crisis.
One thing I haven't got my head around is the scale of projected lithium demand if deuterium-tritium fusion becomes a dominant energy source. Maybe a good comparison would be against current lithium demand for batteries. Are we looking at a big increase in lithium demand, or would the quantity required be relatively insignificant?
why would war break out within europe?
Because we live in an unstable world, and a lot can change in a few decades.
It's not likely, but it isn't impossible either.
I think what @wrecker_vs_dracula is being optimistic about is that we’re significantly more advanced along that timeline than I think you realise.
ITER, is a 20 billion dollar massively multinational fusion project that’s been building a fusion power plant since 2006. It’s projected to be 500 MW net positive and scheduled to come online December 2025.
ITER also doesn’t actually require any particularly exotic fuels. It’s powered by the Deuterium-Tritium reaction so they only need Deuterium, which can be distilled from sea or almost any other type of water and Tritium, which the reaction breeds from (comparatively insignificant) quantities of lithium.
You’re almost certainly right about future plants still taking 15-20 years to build but being 20-25 years away from fusion as a primary power source is still extremely cool, and if it probably won’t be in time to significantly slow down global warming, I think it at the very least can give us hope we might be able to unfuck things afterwards.
This is what I was gonna say. We can construct fission plants now though that have similar power outputs to a theoretical fusion plant but just require thorium and water